Baseball's annual moonshot extravaganza is set for tonight, as Citizens Bank Park hosts the 2026 Home Run Derby.
Before you tune in to Netflix at 8 p.m. ET, consult our MLB expert picks for Monday, July 13.
MLB expert picks for the Home Run Derby
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Junior Caminero to win |
+425 |
 Neil Parker: Ben Rice to win |
+733 |
 Joe Osborne: Bryce Harper to win |
+809 |
 Colby Marchio: Jordan Walker to win |
+733 |
 JD Yonke: Kyle Schwarber to win |
+344 |
 Chris Hatfield: Kyle Schwarber to win |
+344 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Junior Caminero to win
Price: 19¢ (+425) at Polymarket
Junior Caminero was very close to becoming the youngest player ever to win the Home Run Derby last year, but came up a little short vs. Cal Raleigh.
He still hit 21 bombs in the first round and averaged 435 feet per homer. That distance is powered by the league's fastest bat speed at 79.9 mph, the best BlastCont% (26%), and a Top-10 IdealAtlAng%.
This is as short as +330 in some places.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Ben Rice to win
Price: 12¢ (+733) at Polymarket
A “super-short, super-tight swing,” has New York Yankees star Ben Rice up to 29 home runs, and his 29.8% home run to fly ball rate ranks fourth in the majors. Rice will also have his father, Dan Rice, on the mound tossing to him Monday, just like the father-son duo do every offseason.
Rice’s ability to replicate his compact swing gives him an edge with the format changes to the Home Run Derby, too.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Bryce Harper to win
Price: 11¢ (+809) at Polymarket
Experience matters in this event, and Bryce Harper has already proven he thrives under its unique pressure.
He won the 2018 Derby in front of his home crowd in Washington, showing the spotlight only fuels him.
Some hitters get rattled under the bright lights of this competition, but Harper is built for it. Now he’ll have another chance to perform in front of a home crowd, and I think that experience gives him an edge.
Colby Marchio's expert pick: Jordan Walker to win
Price: 12¢ (+733) at Polymarket
I want young guys who have raw, natural power in the Home Run Derby, and Jordan Walker has all of that and more.
The younger stars are always a draw for me because I want to see them leave their mark and make a bigger name for themselves. The Cardinals' 6-foot-6, 250-pound outfielder is easily one of my favorite looks in this event.
JD Yonke's expert pick: Kyle Schwarber to win
Price: 23¢ (+344) at Polymarket
Citizens Bank Park is crafted for left-handed power, given its short porch in right field. Kyle Schwarber knows this park as well as any contestant, and he has something to prove with only a runner-up finish on his resume.
He's crushed 12 more dingers than any other player to lace them up since the start of last season (88), and it's time he takes the throne as the rightful home-run king with the hometown crowd behind him.
Chris Hatfield's expert pick: Kyle Schwarber to win
Price: 23¢ (+344) at Polymarket
Kyle Schwarber is my pick. While June may be the star's typical magic month, it will be this night in July that's his.
The case is simple: he has the most homers in baseball, elite barrel volume, and a lefty pull swing aimed at the 330-foot corner he calls home. The new 20-swing format rewards efficiency over stamina, and nobody wastes fewer swings than Schwarber.
Bonus storyline: he lost the 2018 final to Harper. Revenge at home against a teammate. Sign me up.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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