The Los Angeles Dodgers are in the midst of a six-game losing skid, but the visitors are still heavy -163 favorites tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been brutal this season, which is why I’m backing LA to get back in the win column in my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Dodgers vs Diamondbacks today: Dodgers (-168)
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be happy to see Merrill Kelly on the mound tonight. Kelly’s pitching run value, xERA (7.17), and xBA (.305) all rank in the bottom percentile among MLB pitchers this year.
The Arizona Diamondbacks starter throws his four-seamer more than 26% of the time – a pitch that the Dodgers have feasted on vs. righties.
LA ranks fourth in MLB in average (.270), fifth in SLG (.465), and seventh in wRAA (30.2) against that pitch type.
We’re paying the Dodgers tax, but I’m still taking LA up to -170.
COVERS INTEL: Roki Sasaki relies heavily on his four-seamer as well, and the Diamondbacks are hitting just .173 vs. that pitch from righties over their last 13 games.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-126)
Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki hasn’t been great this season, but he’s turned it up over his last four outings with a stingy 2.25 ERA through that span.
And unlike the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks have struggled against the four-seamer from righties, which also happens to be Sasaki’s most common pitch (42.2%).
Arizona sits 27th in team average (.225) and SLG (.401) vs. that pitch type, suggesting their bats will be quiet tonight.
The Under has cashed in each of Sasaki’s last four starts, while the Under is 3-1-1 in Kelly’s last five outings.
I’d play the Under to -130 tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 7-3, +3.21 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-7, -4.01 units
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Tonight’s forecast calls for mostly clear skies with light winds blowing out to right field in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers -163 | Diamondbacks +156
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-104) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-100)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+117) | Under 9.5 (-122)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
Under is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts following a team loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Dodgers vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNLA, DBacks.TV |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.64 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (8-9, 5.04 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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