The Chicago Cubs are -170 moneyline favorites in Kevin Gausman's first start for the team when they visit the Kansas City Royals.
Paired with a red-hot offense, I see some value in backing Chicago as heavy favorites with my Cubs vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Cubs vs Royals today: Chicago Cubs (-170)
Kevin Gausman’s 2.27 FIP over the past 30 days indicates he has pitched much better than the 4.71 ERA, and the tide should start to turn in his Chicago Cubs debut.
He is limiting hard contact well, and hasn’t allowed a homer over 21 innings during that span. Gausman’s well-equipped to limit power against the Kansas City Royals, who only rank 25th in homers this season.
The Cubs are a distant first in OPS and wOBA vs. lefties the last month, and should cause problems for Daniel Lynch in his debut start of the season.
Bet to -182.
COVERS INTEL: Gausman ranks in the 95th percentile in fastball run value, and the Royals have only hit .238 against that pitch the past 10 games.
Cubs vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (+100)
I’ve talked about Gausman’s power prevention, and his ability to limit walks should help him keep traffic off the basepaths against a Royals team that can really run.
Chicago’s bullpen – although a little taxed – also sits 11th in xFIP the past 30 days. The Cubs are set up well to limit runs throughout this game.
I do project the Cubs for 5.2 runs against Lynch and a struggling batch of relievers, but my model still sees this game going Under the number.
I would play this to -114.
- ML/RL bets: 71-66, -9.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 76-55-6, +12.09 units
Cubs vs Royals weather
The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s with small winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.
Cubs vs Royals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -170 | Royals +145
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (-105) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)
Cubs vs Royals trend
Kansas City has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of the last 15 games (+7.85 units, 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Royals.
How to watch Cubs vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, Royals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (5-10, 4.38 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Daniel Lynch (4-2, 1.96 ERA) |
Cubs vs Royals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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