The Chicago Cubs are feeling good once again after picking up a series win over the Mariners and will continue their West Coast road trip when they square off with the Arizona Diamondbacks this week.
Can the Cubs keep it going with young Ben Brown on the hill, or will this be Merrill Kelly’s night?
Let's dive right into it with our free MLB picks and Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions on Monday, April 15.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a hard offense to trust. They were below average a season ago prior to a sudden injection of power in the playoffs and have calmed back down with a marginally above-average level of production this season.
Arizona is punching out in just 17.1% of plate appearances and walking in 10% — two splendid numbers in very important categories, but this team is producing a measly .144 Isolated Power and sporting the second-highest ground ball rate in the league.
That leads me to Ben Brown, who is one of my favorite pitching prospects in the game. He’s two-dimensional with just a fastball and a curve, but both pitches are high-quality offerings and have led him to some ridiculous strikeout numbers in the minors.
While Arizona may not help him in the strikeout department, the ground balls should be a welcomed sight for a guy sporting pretty acceptable ground-ball rates throughout the minors but ones that have not translated thus far in three Big League appearances.
They’ve only dropped with each start but should jet back up against Arizona. On top of that, Arizona has turned into a harder park to homer at with the introduction of the humidor years ago, and against a team with little power the issues that have plagued him with the longball at times shouldn’t be present — and while the Cubs have struggled thus far in the infield their numbers have begun to improve in recent games.
On the flip side, Merrill Kelly is continuing with his late-career breakthrough but is in danger of seeing his issues with walks creep back in against a patient Chicago Cubs offense. He’s also historically had issues with barrels, something the Cubs excel at.
Too many signs here point to the Cubs and I’ll happily take advantage of market skepticism surrounding Brown. He had one unfortunate inning which came as a result of a tough 3-2 call and some awful defense in Texas which have inflated his numbers. He’s very good and should prove as much on Monday.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Ben Brown 4+ strikeouts
Cody Bellinger 2+ total bases
The Diamondbacks aren’t exactly a friendly matchup for strikeouts, but I don’t know how much that will matter with a strikeout artist like Brown on the hill.
The rookie has struck out nearly 26% of the batters he's faced thus far in the bigs after posting well above 30% in the minors and sports a solid 27.5% whiff ate. On top of that, he should be able to work a good number of innings here given the Diamondbacks should afford him plenty of easy outs on the ground.
Prior to meeting Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson in recent games — two guys who don’t rack up strikeouts — the Diamondbacks struck out 4+ times against their last three right-handed starters. I have confidence in Brown to get to this alternative number.
Then, this may be the night Cody Bellinger gets hot. He picked up a hit last night against Seattle and is hitting .280 against Kelly in his career with four of his seven hits going for extra bases. With a .623 xSLG against Kelly, he should be in a great spot here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-150) | Arizona -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Chicago +115 | Arizona -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening around -142, Arizona was instantly pushed out to -145 and as the day has worn on, has moved to around -148 on average as of this writing with just a few buy-backs on Chicago.
- With that, perhaps the sharps are thinking differently. While 75% of the tickets are on Arizona here at DraftKings, it has commanded just 68% of the cash.
- The total has been a very even affair with the Under taking 54% of the bets but the Over accounting for 50% of the handle, and it’s worth noting that the number opened at nine runs and remains at nine, though it was briefly down to 8.6 for a few hours.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
The Cubs have hit the first-five team total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, ARID |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
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