The St. Louis Cardinals head into the desert to visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Chase Field.
The game projects to be close to a pick'em, with the Cardinals at -106 on the moneyline. Below, I explain why I like the visitors on the moneyline in my Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks predictions.
We've got a high-scoring game in tap in our MLB picks for Friday, July 17.
Who will win Cardinals vs Diamondbacks today: Cardinals (-106)
Fade Merrill Kelly.
The veteran Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander can still generate some chase, but that's about the only nice thing you can say about his 2026 season. His ERA is an ugly 5.38, and his expected ERA is even worse at 7.44.
Lest this turn into a rundown of every statistical deficiency as seen on his Baseball Savant page, the crux of the matter is he doesn't miss bats, and he's getting barreled when opponents make contact. Which they do. All of the time.
The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been up and down, but I like this matchup. Jordan Walker, fresh off his exhilarating Home Run Derby win, is a nightmare matchup for Kelly. He has 100th-percentile bat speed and ranks among baseball's elite in hard contact, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Kelly's inability to generate whiffs will help neutralize Walker's propensity to strike out, though he's made strides in that department as well, going from 31.8% in 2025 to 24.8% this year. He's getting to the ball and doing damage when he does.
The Cardinals will stack the lineup with lefty hitters, too, with Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, and JJ Wetherholt, all of whom boast a wRC+ north of 115 vs. right-handers on the season.
COVERS INTEL: Walker's blast contact rate of 23.2% ranks fifth in MLB. The explosiveness of his bat will not be held in check, as Kelly has the worst BlastCon% among D-Backs hurlers at 18.9%.
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+105)
Having outlined why the Cardinals will run up the score against Kelly, we're well on our way toward the game total Over. And while I prefer St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy, he's not without his own issues.
Like Kelly, McGreevy is not a power pitcher. Where they differ, however, is that McGreevy does an elite job of limiting free passes (5.7% walk rate). He lives in the zone, forcing opponents to swing.
And while the results have been good (a 3.01 ERA!), a lot of that has been lucky. His 5.34 expected ERA is more than two full runs higher, and all of his contact metrics are alarming.
He keeps the ball on the ground, which is helpful when you have Wetherholt and Masyn Winn up the middle, but he's playing with fire.
Still, as we're expecting a bad night from Kelly, McGreevy surrendering two or three runs before handing things off to a middling Cardinals bullpen (4.22 ERA) should be enough.
- ML/RL bets: 5-0, +5.29 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-2, +0.96 units
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks weather
While Chase Field has a retractable roof, it will be closed for the duration of this series with the Cardinals. Weather will not play a role.
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +100 | Diamondbacks -104
- Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+156) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-163)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+117) | Under 9.5 (-122)
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Cardinals vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, July 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, Diamondbacks.TV |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (4-7, 3.01 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merril Kelly (7-8, 5.38 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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