The Tampa Bay Rays staved off elimination to extend the World Series to Game 5, and the Milwaukee Brewers are trading as road favorites ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. ET first pitch at Tropicana Field.
My favorite Brewers vs. Rays prop picks and MLB picks for Wednesday, Oct. 28, are headlined by Milwaukee ace Jacob Misiorowski.
Best Brewers vs Rays props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs |
49% |
| Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases |
47% |
| William Contreras Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
51% |
Prop pick #1: Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy will give ace Jacob Misiorowski his longest leash of the postseason, with the Milwaukee bullpen already up to 21 innings through four games.
As a result, I recommend this Over prop up to 52%.
Misiorowski has been a touch unlucky this postseason, too. His .361 BABIP is astronomically higher than his career regular-season mark of .255.
I’m also expecting an uptick in strikeouts from the ace, with his 10.3% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% strikeout rate well below his regular-season marks of 17.6% and 37.9%, respectively.
Prop pick #2: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases
With Brewers star Jackson Chourio primed for statistical correction at the dish, I would target this Over up to 51%.
As good as the 22-year-old outfielder has been with 10 hits during the World Series, his postseason .323 wOBA and .145 ISO are still well below his regular-season marks of .401 xwOBA and .229 xISO.
Chris Hatfield goes a step further, targeting Chourio to go long in his Brewers vs. Rays predictions.
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Prop pick #3: William Contreras Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Even with a 0-for-5 night at the dish in Game 4, Milwaukee catcher William Contreras is 7-for-17 with a run and three RBI during the World Series.
He’s sporting a .454 wOBA for the postseason while hitting in the heart of the lineup, so I recommend this Over up to 55%. Contreras posted a nearly identical .760 OPS against left-handed pitchers and a .756 OPS against righties during the regular season, too.
- Prop picks: 21-12, +11.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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