The Milwaukee Brewers will look to close out the Tampa Bay Rays and claim their first World Series victory.
They are 60% favorites to do it, which is why my Brewers vs. Rays home run predictions and MLB picks lean toward the road team.
For further insight, read our Brewers vs. Rays predictions for Game 5 on Oct. 28.
Best Brewers vs Rays home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jake Bauers |
14% |
 Yandy Diaz |
9% |
| Long shot: Cooper Pratt |
6% |
| 💲HR combo: Jake Bauers, Yandy Diaz, Cooper Pratt | 0.3% |
Brewers home run pick: Jake Bauers
Play to 17%.
The Tampa Bay Rays will use a wide array of arms and hunt matchups as they look to keep their season alive. Bauers’ ability to hit both lefties and righties makes him a top target.
He feasted on righties during the regular season, leading the Milwaukee Brewers in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and xwOBA.
Importantly, he trailed only Jackson Chourio among Brewers in barrel rate vs. lefties. He has real pop against RHP and LHP.
Bauers hammered two baseballs 388 and 403 feet in last night’s game, a sign he’s seeing the ball well and getting a feel for how the Rays are attacking him.
Rays home run pick: Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz is worth a play to 11%.
There’s no easy path to offense against Jacob Misiorowski, but the Brewers’ top hurler ranks 13 percentage points lower in xSLG allowed to righties than to lefties.
If Misiorowski shows any rust after four days of rest and gives up power, it'll probably come from a right-handed bat.
The potential for an early exit is a factor, too. Misiorowski has averaged 13.3 outs in the playoffs, and it’s unlikely he'll give the Brewers extreme length on less rest.
I’d feel better about Diaz — or anybody, for that matter — facing a reliever who likely pitched Tuesday rather than the NL Cy Young winner.
Long-shot home run pick: Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt is my value pick to leave the park, and I'd bite to 7%.
He has already homered in the World Series and has consistently generated quality contact.
Only four players have recorded more hard-hit balls in four games, and Pratt trails only Chourio in wOBA.
Pratt is very good at avoiding punchouts, keeping him alive for more at-bats than most other players. That will be key in a game where the Rays are using an abundance of pitchers to hunt strikeouts.
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Brewers vs Rays home run combo
This combo is built upon Milwaukee closing out the series with a bang.
Bauers came within striking distance of leaving the park twice in Game 4, and his ability to hit both lefties and righties will serve him well in a game the Rays are endlessly going through pitchers.
Pratt’s ability to limit strikeouts while increasing hard-hit balls makes him a good candidate to help the Brewers pile on.
Diaz leads the World Series in barrel rate, and is Tampa Bay’s best hope of generating power against Misiorowski.
- HR picks: 0-3, -0.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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