The Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) will look to continue their undefeated start as they visit the Dallas Mavericks tonight.
Dallas has struggled on offense and will find it hard to score against a strong OKC defense, which is why I'm backing Oklahoma City to cover in my Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction.
Read on to get all my free NBA picks for Wednesday, Oct. 28.
TOP PICK
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction: Thunder -5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are off to another strong start this season, starting 4-0 and winning each game by at least seven points. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive efficiency (104.8) and are fifth in offensive efficiency (116.3), while ranking fourth in true shooting percentage (59.9%).
The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a nice road win in Miami, but have lost badly in their first two games against elite Western Conference opponents. Their half-court offense has been stagnant, with Dallas ranking 27th in offensive efficiency (108.5).
Those factors will make it difficult for the Mavericks to find consistent scoring against Oklahoma City tonight. I like the Thunder to cover giving up to 7.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in defensive impact (+10.3), a tough matchup for a Mavericks team that ranks 27th in effective field goal percentage (52.7%).
Thunder vs Mavericks combo
The Thunder have been dominant defensively this season, holding opponents to an average of 100.8 ppg in their 4-0 start. But they also play at a relatively slow pace, and that's led to them hitting the Under in three of their first four games. I like the Under tonight against a Mavs team struggling to score efficiently right now.
I'm also backing Jared McCain to hit at least three shots from deep tonight. McCain has been firing away from three-point range, shooting 5.8 times per game from beyond the arc and hitting those attempts at a 47.8%.
Thunder vs Mavericks combo
- Thunder -5.5
- Under 228.5
- Jared McCain 3+ threes made
Thunder vs Mavericks player props
Thunder player prop: Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein normally plays second banana at the center position for the Thunder, but with Chet Holmgren sitting out tonight, Hartenstein will get another chance to shine, and he's more than capable of putting up starter numbers when he gets more playing time.
Over his last two games, Hartenstein has played an average of 26.5 minutes, which has resulted in him grabbing 12+ rebounds in each of those contests. Dallas ranks 22nd in rebounding rate (48.9%), so I expect this success on the boards to continue.
I'm trading on Hartenstein to get 10+ rebounds at up to 60%.
Mavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg 40+ points + rebounds + assists
In his rookie season, Cooper Flagg put up an average of 33.1 PRA while starting the year at just 18 years of age. Now in his second season, Flagg is looking to take on the clear central role for Dallas. We saw that on Monday, when he put up 29 points, 11 assists, and six rebounds against the Miami Heat.
I'm expecting a lot more of those performances from Flagg this season. His early numbers are depressed a bit by a game in which he played just 17 minutes, yet his PRA total is already up to 36.6, and he's gone for 39+ PRA in two of the Mavericks' first three games.
Flagg should be the focus for Dallas at home tonight, and I like him to pick up 40+ PRA at up to 47%.
- Top picks: 2-3, -1.07 units
- Combos: 0-5, -5.00 units
Thunder vs Mavericks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Thunder -5.5 | Mavericks +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
- Moneyline: Thunder 67% | Mavericks 34%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Thunder vs Mavericks trend
The Thunder were 3-0 against the Mavericks last season, winning each game by at least seven points. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Thunder vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| Tip off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
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