The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers seek a three-game series sweep when they meet the Atlanta Braves this afternoon.
This series has fully demonstrated how Atlanta can be its own worst enemy, striking out 25 times while batting only 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, and my Brewers vs. Braves predictions expect more of the same today.
Read on for my MLB picks and why I think Frankie Montas will excel on Thursday, August 8.
Brewers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Frankie Montas Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Strikeouts have been the main reason for the Atlanta Braves' offensive woes, especially over the last few weeks. Atlanta is 7-11 since the All-Star break with an MLB-leading 28% strikeout rate against righties.
The Bravo's 1,020 strikeouts this season are the seventh-most in the show. The strikeout problems are magnified when facing right-handed arms (769), which will be problematic today when they meet Milwaukee Brewers righty Frankie Montas.
Montas makes his second start in a Milwaukee uniform since being acquired from Cincinnati at the MLB trade deadline. Montas has whiffed 89 batters this season, good for 7.60 punch-outs per nine frames, and is coming off a five-strikeout outing against the Washington Nationals.
The Brewers righty has a longer leash than most with a good matchup today. According to THE BAT X, Montas averages 93.6 adjusted pitches per outing and he’s cleared that mark in four of his past six, with 5+ strikeouts in four of those starts.
Per nine innings, the 31-year-old hurler strikes out more righties (8.20) than left-handed bats (7.05), which bodes well for him this afternoon as he could see as many as seven Atlanta righties with strikeout rates north of 22%.
As a member of the Reds, Montas struck out six Braves on July 24 and he’s had some success getting Ks against this Braves' lineup, with 15 across 58 career ABs. If Montas gets his current allotment of pitches, and I believe he will, the veteran righty will set down at least five strikeout-prone Braves today.
Brewers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Frankie Montas Over 4.5 strikeouts
Charlie Morton Under 17.5 outs
I like the Montas strikeout prop but Braves starter Charlie Morton has an outs prop we’ll also attack today.
Morton is issuing 3.71 free passes per nine this season at Truist Park. While that is concerning, so is Morton’s .300 home BABIP. The Brewers boast the third-best walk rate and the second-highest OBP against right-handers (.332).
Morton’s command issues have led to an average of only 16.6 outs across his last 10 starts, and I believe he won’t clear 17.5 outs today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Braves odds
Brewers vs Braves live odds
Brewers vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-160) | Atlanta -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +125 | Atlanta -150
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Brewers vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Brewers have hit the moneyline in 64 of their last 113 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI) with ML prices as high as +126.
- The Braves have only hit the moneyline in 42 of their last 89 games (-28.60 Units / -21% ROI) and are priced as low as -135.
- Over/Under markets are reporting as many as 9.5 runs. Over bettors can find Over 9 (-120) while Under 9.5 (-120) is widely available.
Brewers vs Braves trend
Frankie Montas has 5+ strikeouts in nine of his last 20 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.
Brewers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports South |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (5-8, 5.03 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (6-6, 3.94 ERA) |
Brewers vs Braves latest injuries
Brewers vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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