Best NFL Picks Today

Rashid Shaheed is a home run threat, especially against a Denver defense running man coverage at the seventh highest frequency. The Broncos are likely without shutdown corner Patrick Surtain again and could also miss their other starting CB in Riley Moss and SS Talanoa Hufanga. Shaheed's TNF projections all sit north of 22 yards, ranging from 25 to a ceiling of 36.5 receiving yards. My number comes out to 30 yards from the Seattle speedster with respect to his ability to take the top of the defense and strike for big plays.

The Houston defense is traveling to London and ranks in the bottom half in EPA/dropback. I hate how the Jaguars are calling plays near the goal line with their running backs, so I'll happily back Brenton Strange at 4.8x with a fair price of 3.5x. He's seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks and is coming off two of the biggest games of his career. He failed to score in either outing but is getting red-zone snaps and is the No. 2 option in the passing game right now. Nobody seeing 6+ targets should be priced at 4.8x or longer for a TD.

The Titans are the lowest-scoring offense in football, and the Survivor World will be backing the Colts this week. Tyler Warren added a fourth-down, one-yard TD last week, while leading the team with nine targets and pacing the Colts in receptions. His TD bets have returned a 78% ROI, with Warren scoring in three of his five games and being priced similarly in Week 4 to where he is this week. The Colts also have three starters in the secondary on the early-week injury report, with starting safety Kevin Winston Jr. doubtful. Buy this to 2.4x.

I got this at 4.1x with a fair price of 2.4x and expect it to come down during the week. This is a classic post-bye-week value play for Coker, who faces a banged-up Eagles team on both sides of the ball. Coker missed Week 4 before heading into the Week 5 bye, making him an afterthought for many. He was a full participant at practice Wednesday. In the two full games he's played this year, he's posted lines of 8/138/2 and 8/66/0. He's also seen five red-zone targets across those two games, more than Tetairoa McMillan. The rest advantage for the Panthers is significant, with the Eagles returning from London.

It's a good week to buy low on the Saints' offense after they ran into the Vikings last week and did nothing. The Giants are not the Vikings, and New York has faced the Titans, Commanders, and Cardinals and still ranks No. 22 in EPA/play allowed. They have five DBs on IR and another questionable this week. The Saints can move the ball in Week 6. Kendre Miller is the early-down back now. He had three red-zone carries last week and was the only running back to see any RZ opportunities. Alvin Kamara played just 12 snaps and had only one carry after the Saints' third drive. If New Orleans gets into the red zone, it'll have a great chance of finishing drives with touchdowns, as the Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in RZ TD% allowed. The fair price for a Miller TD should be 2.4x.

Caleb Williams was listed as a full participant at Wednesday's estimated walkthrough, which is great news for this offense in an indoor setting vs. Atlanta. Luther Burden is coming off a season-high 76% snap share and added four rushing attempts. He saw another two red-zone targets and is tied for the team lead in looks inside the 20 through five games. He has a better target share than both Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, yet is priced longer than both. Playing indoors increases pass rate and efficiency, and the Bears are already running the most plays per game in the league. I'm playing Burden to 2.7x.

I got this at 6x and have the fair price around 5x. Romeo Doubs isn't impressing in an offense that has found a new gear over the last two weeks. Doubs had just one catch despite playing 85% of the snaps and running a route on 92% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, speedster Kyle Williams had 91 yards and a TD on three targets despite just a 34% route share. Williams is getting more looks and played 41% of the snaps in 3-WR sets. With Mack Hollins out, Williams will get his chances to impress and stretch the New York defense in an offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/dropback over the last two weeks. He doesn't need a lot of volume to cash this.

Kansas City’s offense is rolling in Episode 2 of the Eric Bieniemy Experience, with the team rating in the Top 10 of all the sexy advanced metrics and placing fourth in points per play. The Chiefs face a Bolts team that can’t seem to string together two positive plays before either turning the ball over or getting flagged for a penalty. The Chargers have the ninth lowest success rate on third down and picked up just 14 first downs in a loss to Denver Sunday. This will be L.A.’s third road game in the past four weeks and a much-needed bye in Week 7 could serve as look-ahead bait for the Bolts.

Jordan Love has thrown for 300+ yards in three of five games so far and faces a dreadful Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday Night Football. He's has enjoyed past meetings with the Cowboys, amassing 337 yards and three touchdowns last season and connecting for three TDs and 272 yards in Green Bay’s infamous ass-waxing of Dallas in the 2023 Wild Card Round. The Cowboys are off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay at home last Thursday. Three turnovers sucked all the juice out of a big night for QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 316 yards in Week 5. Dallas’ defense is getting blown away by explosive downfield plays, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per play.