My NFL Survivor picks for Week 6 feature several tempting favorites, but the safest choice may not be as straightforward as the win probabilities suggest.
The Rams headline the options, with the Patriots offering a riskier route. Plus, my NFL picks for Week 6 highlight two other popular contenders carrying enough concerns to avoid.
Rams
Patriots
Chiefs
ColtsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 6 Survivor Pool first look
There might not be a contrarian pick this week since the four teams in the table above should be relatively evenly owned. In fact, you could make a case this is the best spot to use all four. That said, if you wanted to avoid picking the obvious options, consider the Buffalo Bills over the Las Vegas Raiders.
You're sacrificing Buffalo's excellent future value with home games against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets on the horizon. However, the Raiders are frauds and they started 3-0 by beating three of the worst teams in the league who have a combined record of 1-14.
If you wanted to go full contrarian in hopes of a few big favorites getting knocked off, I'd flirt with taking the Green Bay Packers over the Dallas Cowboys. Lambeau Field is one of the toughest stadiums to visit, and Dallas' defense can't stop a nosebleed.
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Teams to target in Week 6
Safe pick: Rams (vs Cardinals)
This is by far the best spot to use Los Angeles because Arizona is possible first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft bad. The Cardinals are giving up a league-high 32.4 points per game, the Rams are healthy, and Sean McVay is 16-3 straight-up against Arizona all-time with a +12.1 scoring margin.
Risky pick: Patriots (vs Jets)
This is only "risky" because New England's secondary has cluster injuries, and Drake Maye looked broken in September. Otherwise, this is a great spot to back New England, which could be less popular since New York is coming off a win and sharps were picking the Jets to go Over their regular-season win total during the preseason.
Teams to avoid in Week 6
Chiefs (vs Chargers)
Justin Herbert and Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh are too good to be winless, and they are a live 'dog against anyone. The Chargers beat Kansas City twice last season, once with Patrick Mahomes playing, and Los Angeles could be getting healthier this week.
Colts (vs Titans)
This isn't about Tennessee, the lowest power-rated team in the league; it's about Indianapolis, which I'm lower on than the market. Heading into Week 5, the Colts were 17th in the consensus power ratings, per NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen, but 28th by my numbers.
Week 6 Survivor Pool strategy
Even though I can't create a narrative for the Washington Commanders upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football outside of Jayden Daniels playing out of his mind, I'd rather save the Niners.
Week 9 against the Raiders at home after a bye or Week 18 against Arizona, when San Francisco could need a win to clinch the division or home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, are more appealing spots.
The Baltimore Ravens are another team I'd save. They are 3.5-point favorites at the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. But Lamar Jackson's health is questionable, and Baltimore hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a bye in Week 14 and Cleveland in Week 16 are better games to use the Ravens.
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