Two 3-2 teams clash tonight as the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos meet at Denver's Empower Field at Mile High for Thursday Night Football.
My Seahawks vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer predictions put the spotlight on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and J.K. Dobbins.
For more NFL picks for Thursday's clash, Joe Osborne has you covered with his complete Seahawks vs. Broncos predictions.
Best Seahawks vs Broncos anytime touchdown scorer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
47% |
 J.K. Dobbins |
34% |
| First TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
14% |
| Long shot: Seahawks D/ST |
15% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Seahawks touchdown scorer pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
If you're still wondering just how good Jaxon Smith-Njigba is, he effed his ankle vs. San Francisco, got that shit taped up, and still finished with five passes for 102 yards and a touchdown.
JSN has found paydirt in all but one game this season, and it's not hard to see why. He has a 57% target share among the Seattle Seahawks wide receivers, and 50% inside the 20.
Only Amon-Ra St. Brown has gotten more red-zone looks than Smith-Njigba's 11 targets, and he's hauled in five of those in the end zone.
All-Pro CB Pat Surtain is also listed as doubtful on the Denver Broncos' IR, which is music to the Ohio State product's ears. I think JSN will suit up Thursday night, and I'll back him to score up to 50%.
Broncos touchdown scorer pick: J.K. Dobbins
Seattle's No. 1-rated air defense makes me more scared to back Bo Nix and his receivers than usual, so I'm turning to running back J.K. Dobbins to break through for the second game in a row.
No one was happier to have Sean Payton calling plays than Dobbins, who had a season-high 18 rush attempts and his first touchdown of the season in Week 5.
Denver's running back also played a season-high 52% of offensive snaps, and both numbers could rise against a Seahawks secondary allowing just 150.8 passing yards per game.
Unlike other teams, I'm also not worried about RJ Harvey coming in to steal a TD. The backup RB has zero carries inside the five, 10, and 20. I'll play this up to 40%.
While a touchdown may be in order, Jason Logan is taking the Under on Dobbins' rushing yards as one of his favorite TNF player props for Week 6.
First touchdown scorer pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Doubling down on the best player in the game is always fun, especially when it's a wide receiver going against a beaten-up secondary.
Not only is Surtain doubtful, but safety Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) and CB Riley Moss (ribs) are also dealing with injuries.
I'm not too concerned about how JSN will play after seeing what he did to the Niners on his return, and it would be wise for Darnold to look to his best player in a road game where points could be hard to come by.
Smith-Njigba's usage throughout the game and inside the 20 has me trading him to score first up to 18%.
Long-shot touchdown scorer pick: Seahawks D/ST
I am up plenty of units with my TNF TD pieces this year... so let's get WEIRD (first time betting a TD for a team's D/ST, kinda nervous hehe).
The Seahawks' secondary has seven picks through five games, and now faces Bo Nix, who has already thrown three this year. Not Drake Maye numbers, but also not CJ Stroud rookie year numbers (IYKYK).
While a pick-six is one avenue, kick/punting returns could be our best shot. Rashid Shaheed is explosive on returns and even brought home two scores last season. His season-long total thus far is 39, and he's always a threat to take it all... the... way...
Lastly is a scoop and score. Seattle already has 14 sacks this season, and Nix, who's already been sacked six times, isn't exactly untouchable right now.
Play this to 16%.
Seahawks vs Broncos touchdown combo
I actually had so much fun getting weird in my long-shot pick that I'm doing it for this combo too.
Nix trails only J.K. Dobbins in red-zone carries for Denver, and his 10 career TDs tell us he's not afraid to put his head down and run in for a score if nothing is open — very likely against "The Dark Side".
While not as likely to tuck it and run, 2025 was the first year Sam Darnold didn't score. He has 14 career touchdowns, and I'm willing to run this fun all-QB lay for a quarter unit. Bankroll management, people!
- TD picks: 7-6, +17.22 units
- First TD picks: 0-5, -2.50 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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