The Seattle Seahawks leave the coast and head up the mountain for a prime-time matchup with the Denver Broncos in Week 6.
This non-conference clash between contenders is expected to be a tight battle, with the spread set at a field goal. I swing my attention to the individual efforts with my favorite Seahawks vs. Broncos prop picks for Thursday Night Football.
Get your week started with these NFL picks for Oct. 15.
Best Seahawks vs Broncos props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 J.K. Dobbins - No 50+ rushing yards |
54% |
 A.J. Barner 3+ receptions |
52% |
| Emanuel Wilson 65+ rushing yards |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: J.K. Dobbins - No 50+ rushing yards
While the Denver Broncos’ attack didn’t look much different with Sean Payton calling plays, still as flavorful as a fortune cookie, he leaned more on the run. Payton leaned on RB J.K. Dobbins for most of those carries.
Dobbins got a season-high 18 carries but managed only 68 rushing yards, an average of 3.6 yards per carry, and topped his yardage total (50.5 O/U) for the first time this year.
He was actually 24th among all RBs with 10 or more carries in yards over expectation in Week 5, with a -18.3 rating.
Dobbins struggles to get above 4.0 yards per attempt and faces one of the stingiest run-stopping units in the land. The Seattle Seahawks are the No. 2 rushing defense in both EPA allowed per carry and Run Defense DVOA, budging for only 3.7 yards per attempt.
Dobbins’ Week 5 projections are mixed, with most models landing around 50 rushing yards on 13 carries, though some call for closer to 60 and even 70+ yards. I’m not buying it.
Prop markets have moved early toward less production, with his No 50+ yards trading at 54% and his O/U number sliding from 50.5 to as low as 44.5 yards.
Prop pick #2: A.J. Barner 3+ receptions
Seattle tight end A.J. Barner caught three balls on five targets in the loss to San Francisco in Week 5.
That was his busiest day since the loss to Washington and its blitz-centric schemes in Week 3, when he caught five passes on nine targets. Thursday’s foe also likes to bring extra pass rushers, with the Broncos blitzing at the eighth-highest rate.
Denver allows rival tight ends to eat in 2026 and enters Week 6 ranked 20th in DVOA vs. TEs, watching 7.6 passes per game to the position. The 6-foot-6 Barner is the perfect pressure release when Sam Darnold feels the heat.
Barner has been much more involved in the Seattle offense under new OC Brian Fleury — a former tight ends coach. His snap share has climbed each week, and he’s 15th among all TEs in number of routes run.
Thursday’s forecasts put his receptions between 2.8 and 3.4, with my number at 3.06 catches from Barner.
Prop pick #3: Emanuel Wilson 65+ rushing yards
Seahawks running back Emanuel Wilson will remain RB1 as Zach Charbonnet sits another week.
Wilson has seen snap share separation from fellow RB George Halani the past two weeks, getting 60% and 59% of snaps, equating to 21 and 20 carries. With Halani fumbling twice (to Wilson’s one fumble) in Week 5, the Seahawks will continue to lean on Wilson more.
He faces a Denver defense with a glaring weak spot against the run. The Broncos gave up 155 rushing yards to the Chargers on Sunday and enter TNF ranked 28th in EPA allowed per carry, barfing up 4.7 yards per run to foes. Denver is also worst in explosive runs allowed (seven for 20+ yards, two for 40+).
Projections aren’t overly bullish on Wilson, ranging from 55 to 69 yards in Week 6. My forecast comes out to 68 yards on the ground, considering Seattle is a road favorite with a run-positive game script in the second half.
- Prop picks: 23-10, +12.39 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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