Best NFL Picks Today

Jadarian Price didn't catch a lot of balls at Notre Dame, but new OC Brian Fleury could change that. He comes from the Kyle Shanahan school, where Christian McCaffrey had a higher target share than CeeDee Lamb last season. Sam Darnold has talked about Price's pass-catching skills, and so has his own defense after Price burned them deep at 7-on-7s. If the Seahawks can't get the first-round rookie going on the ground against a tough New England run unit, look for Fleury to get Price going in the pass game. Kenneth Walker saw 3+ targets in nine of his last 11 games last season, and 3+ grabs is certainly live Wednesday. With Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet out, Price will get a ton of snaps and projects for 1.89 receptions. I'd play this to -105.

The ability to grab the Rams at -3.5 (52%) at Kalshi is a win compared to what we're seeing elsewhere, where the Rams are trading closer to 54% at -3.5 or the line has already moved to -4. I make the Rams closer to a 5-point favorite in this spot, so there is definitely an edge to exploit at -3.5 (52%) at Kalshi. It's also easy to see why the market is moving toward Rams -4. Aaron Donald won't be making the trip, but I think the Rams' other offseason acquisitions, Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, could play a huge role. Garrett, along with Poona Ford, should be able to generate pressure up the middle, while McDuffie has the ability to completely suffocate Mike Evans on the perimeter.

The gap between Colston Loveland's TD market implied probability (32%) and his actual chance of scoring (fair around 40%) is a big Week 1 advantage for early bettors. Loveland averaged 66 yards per game after Week 8 last season while adding touchdowns in five of those games (six total). Wide receiver Rome Odunze (leg) suffered his injury last Thursday and didn't practice Tuesday, while Luther Burden has been out for about a month with a groin injury and is working his way back to practice this week. It's the perfect spot at the wrong price for Caleb Williams' favorite target over the second half of last season. Williams finished last year with the third-highest deep-throw rate, and Loveland, who doesn't drop balls and played 40% of his snaps in the slot or out wide, could take full advantage as the healthiest pass catcher on the roster.

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

The Cleveland Browns enter the year with massive questions on offense, with PFF rating them dead last in its offensive power rankings, though they remain solid on defense. With two solid defenses and Cleveland's atrocious offense, this promises to be one of the lowest-scoring games of Week 1. I like the Under at totals down to 38.5 points.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

The blitz-heavy Vikings will face a Packers offensive line with question marks beside starters Aaron Banks (knee) and Zach Bako-Bewele (knee), and Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love dipped to a pedestrian 41.6 completion percentage for 5.0 yards per target when pressured last season. Playing without key starters Micah Parsons (knee) and Josh Jacobs (Reserve-CEL) will aslo be a huge hit to the Packers. On the flip side, Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray has a top-tier receiver corps at his disposal for the first time of his career, and his 67.1 career completion percentage and mobility will thrive in head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offense.

I’m anticipating Diggs serving as a security blanket for quarterback Jayden Daniels early and often in the season opener, and with Washington a healthy underdog, the Commanders won’t have the luxury of abandoning the passing attack. Diggs was also sneaky good last season and finished 14th in PFF receiving grade while pacing the league in reception percentage among wideouts with at least 50 targets.

With the Giants in transition mode under new head coach John Harbaugh, I’m happy to take the Cowboys below the key number of 3. The Dallas offense has oodles of continuity after averaging 27.7 points per game last season, and the offseason commitment to bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball will provide an upgrade to a stop unit that allowed the third-most yards and most points per game.  I also anticipate this game closing with Dallas as at least a -3 favorite ahead of Sunday Night Football.

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.