Best NFL Picks Today

This is a pass-first offense that ranks third in PROE but really lays it on when trailing. Chuba Hubbard had four catches on five targets last week (27 yards) in a negative game script and still missed the fourth quarter after the Panthers pulled their starters. He's running routes on 55% of dropbacks and also gets looks in the red zone. This is a 5-star prop on the Covers projection page, with a projection of 19.8 yards and a fair price of 55%.

Travis Hunter broke out in Week 6, and although he wasn't running a ton of routes, he was targeted on four of his seven routes. Brian Thomas' role is falling off a cliff, and Liam Cohen is talking about "chomping away" at Hunter's increased role in the offense going forward. He isn't going to see 100 snaps, but his offensive role looks like it could slowly increase each week. The talent is there, and 13% doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment coming out of the bye. He shouldn't be less probable to score than Josh Cameron or Thomas.

The Titans have problems giving up home runs over the top and Higgins is one the best deep threats in the land, averaging 21.6 air yards per reception and amassing eight catches for 20+ yards. Tennessee has also been burned by WR2s to start the season, rating 24th in DVOA vs. WR2s at FTN while giving up almost 56 yards per game to those second options. Most forecasts come in above 80 yards and my projection sits just shy of 81 yards receiving for Higgins.

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight of these situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me. The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after hitting Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me. He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense. I got this at 27% and would buy at 29%.

I recommend Hockenson to find the end zone up to 31% because he has garnered a solid 33.3% target share in the red zone and scored last week. The Lions have also surrendered a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including yielding a score to the position in five of six games. Of course, Hockenson also ranks second in EPA per target among tight ends.

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out. Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. The worst Godwin can be is WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games. I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

Sunday’s trip to Dallas is a pass-positive game script for the large road underdog and while QB Jacoby Brissett has fallen off a cliff, he faces a soft Cowboys secondary making all QBs look like Pro Bowlers (opponent passer rating of 105.2). Most of Wilson's Week 8 projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 70 yards receiving. My forecast comes out to 63+ yards,  buying back a market that was as high as 80+ just three games ago.

Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate. Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.

Going back to November 2024, Allen has rushed for at least 30 yards in nine of the previous 14 games with closing spreads of four points or shorter. He’s averaged more than 43 yards rushing in those contests. His Week 8 projections range from 29 yards to a ceiling of 40.5 yards rushing, with my number at 38.5 gains on the ground and giving plenty of respect to the higher forecasts.

The Rams went with heavy TE sets last week without Davante Adams in the lineup, and Colby Parkinson stood out again while Tyler Higbee's targets continued to fall. However, Parkinson picked up a rib injury and didn't practice Wednesday, which could open the door for Davis Allen to step up. Allen had two TDs last week on five targets and could see some run as TE1 if Parkinson sits. He's also being used well in the red zone, with four RZ targets over his last three games. Terrance Ferguson is also out, creating the potential for a big role in an indoor game. Allen is at 15% but should be priced closer to 24%, around Higbee's current price.

Eli Raridon has been on my TD radar since opening night vs. the Seahawks. He added another score last week and has 50+ yards in two of his last three games, along with a red-zone target in four straight contests. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are out, and A.J. Brown was limited at practice Wednesday. The rookie tight end has value at 5x or better as a legitimate red-zone threat on a team that's struggling to run the ball. I wouldn't go past 22% or 4.5x.

I recommend this touchdown prop to 35% after Coleman handled a 49% snap share and sparked Denver to a fourth-ranked rushing DVOA in Week 7. Head coach Sean Payton is looking to give Coleman more touches, and veteran rusher J.K. Dobbins has dipped to just 3.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Coleman's high-end 0.12 EPA per rush and physical between-the-tackles style make him the best option for red-zone looks in the Denver backfield.

I'll take an RB1 against the Eagles, who just gave up 204 rushing yards to the Cowboys and are playing on a short week. Rachaad White is one of the better +EV TD options in this game, with a fair probability of 40%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, Terry McLaurin is out, and Stefon Diggs is questionable. Austin Ekeler saw almost no action in Week 6 before the bye, while White played 69% of the snaps and accounted for 60% of the RB opportunities. His receiving skills also keep him on the field in two-minute situations and negative game scripts.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a 2,000-yard receiver this year. He has a 36% target share and a league-leading 51% air-yard share. According to Sumer Sports, this is the best 27-game stretch by any receiver in the tracking era. He's dominant, and this offense is nothing when it isn't feeding him. I'll take the JSN TD to 56% this week. Chicago plays at a fast pace, which could create more opportunities on both sides. The Bears are also one of just three teams in football allowing a TD and 150+ receiving yards to opposing WRs this season.