MLB Picks

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard. That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty. I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%. He leads the Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order. It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.

The Colorado pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Blake Adams getting the ball. This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers. It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%. He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25. Fade the Rockies until Game 162.

Spencer Jones continues to provide plenty of pop in the Yankees lineup, and his hit prop is offering legitimate value at -128. The young slugger is sporting a .677 SLG and .290 ISO over his last 10 games, while posting a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate. Jones draws Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has allowed a 52.6% hard-hit rate to his last 30 left-handed hitters faced. With Jones hitting in a dangerous Yankees lineup and simply needing one ball to find open grass, this is a price I’m comfortable playing down to -150. The home run and double are worth sprinkling, too.

This is one of the best +EV pitcher props on the board today, with a fair price of -145/-150. Over Max Scherzer's last 46 innings, he has walked nearly a batter every two innings, with 22 total walks. Even at home this year, his walk numbers are worse than on the road, with a staggering 4.4 BB/9. If you didn't know, the matchup is almost always priced into these numbers. So if someone is selling you on it, it's usually baked in. But the Orioles are a Top 10 BB% team in the second half, so I'm scratching my head at this price. Scherzer can get this Over even with a 75-pitch outing, but he has had some 90+ pitch games of late. I'll play this to -130.

Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
 
 
 
 

This market is moving to the Under, with a fair price of -150 and some books already at -140. Aaron Nola just faced the Braves in his last start, and although he went 21 outs, he failed to get six strikeouts. The familiarity factor is with the bats. Facing the same team in back-to-back starts is a very important input for the best baseball projections in the world and usually something that isn't priced into opening lines. Nola has been great in the second half, but his second-half FIP (4.80) is a bottom-40 mark among all MLB starters. He's prone to the deep ball, and the Braves have him fresh in their memories. I'm buying this to -130.

Tyler Stephenson has provided the Reds with real pop of late, and profiles very well against Dustin May’s mix.

Isolating May’s three most-used pitches, which account for well over 80% of what he throws to righties, Stephenson has posted a 14.8% barrel rate and generated hard contact at a 51.9% clip over the last 25 games. 

I was on the White Sox yesterday, but it's a different story today. They just got swept at home by the Pirates and put up a donut last night. Now they have a tough travel spot, opening a series against the Cardinals today. The Cardinals have a fair probability of 58.3%, per THE BAT, and are the best +EV ML on the board today. Matthew Liberatore's 5.57 ERA might scare some away on the surface, but his 3.22 xFIP in the second half is the 24th-best mark among all starters, while his .373 BABIP and 56.6% LOB% are unsustainable. Chicago is also missing one of its best arms, lefty Hagen Smith, who threw 33 pitches last night. Chicago has clenched butt cheeks right now, and that division lead is slipping. This roster knows nothing about adversity, and it could be an ugly finish.

Joc Pederson’s hits, runs and RBI prop stands out in the Rangers’ matchup with Arizona. The veteran designated hitter has been crushing the baseball lately, posting a .700 SLG, .450 ISO, nearly 54% hard-hit rate and 23% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He’s also recorded a .667 SLG, .967 OPS and .445 ISO across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Pederson gets right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has struggled at home with a 6.66 xERA while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and a barrel rate above 15%. With Pederson likely leading off, he should have plenty of opportunities to cash this prop.

The A’s are a live dog tonight. Jeffrey Springs has held Mariners hitters to a .457 OPS across 116 at-bats, and Seattle ranks dead-last in OPS against lefties over the past month. The Mariners have also lost George Kirby’s last five road starts. Add a bullpen edge for the A's, with a 2.54 ERA versus Seattle’s 6.23 over the last two weeks, and we have a solid case to back the home underdog. 

Anthony Molina is an extremely fastball-heavy pitcher, and Manny Machado should be a prime beneficiary.

He has crushed right-handed fastballs over his last 25 games, generating an 18.8% barrel rate, 56.2% hard hit rate, and .304 ISO.

The power has really shown up, and he’ll need every bit of it to leave the park at Oracle.