The Chicago Cubs are a sizable home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates ahead of the 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch of their series opener at Wrigley Field on Friday, Sept. 11.
My top Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga to lead the way in a convincing win this afternoon.
Who will win Pirates vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (45.5%)
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The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts.
Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.
Pittsburgh righty Wilber Dotel is scheduled to make his first career start before giving way to a bullpen that ranks eighth in xERA and 13th in xFIP across the past 30 days, but it’s also a potentially tired group that was tasked with 12 1/3 innings during their three-game series that wrapped up Thursday night.
With the highlighted statistical correction ahead for Chicago paired with them ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against righties for the campaign, I’m anticipating the North Siders giving Dotel early trouble before chipping in runs against the Pittsburgh bullpen.
I recommend Cubs -1.5 to 47.6%.
COVERS INTEL: Imanaga has generated the sixth-most swinging strikes while allowing the seventh-lowest walk rate among qualified pitchers.
Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54.5%)
The weather forecast calls for the wind to be blowing in modestly at Wrigley Field this afternoon, so with the noted offensive struggles of the Pirates against lefties, I’m not anticipating Pittsburgh piling up runs against Imanaga.
Pittsburgh has played to the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI), and Imanaga has held the Pirates to a minuscule .345 OPS across six starts against them, after all.
Additionally, while there is statistical correction ahead for the Cubs, Pittsburgh essentially going with a bullpen game should keep the Chicago lineup off balance just enough to keep this total Under the number.
This total is in play to 55.6%.
Pirates vs Cubs home run prediction: Michael Conforto (14.3%)
Cubs outfielder Michael Conforto has settled into a groove at the plate down the stretch with a massive .584 wOBA and .483 ISO across his past 36 plate appearances, and he’s also put up a high-end .227 ISO against right-handed arms for the campaign.
Pittsburgh righty Carmen Mlodzinski is a candidate to pitch multiple innings in relief Friday, so Conforto should see multiple looks to stay hot this afternoon.
- ML/RL bets: 57-31, +28.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 29-30, -0.92 units
Pirates vs Cubs weather
The forecast calls for a sunny 76°F afternoon with no chance of precipitation and a steady 8 mph breeze blowing inward from the outfield should give pitchers a slight edge.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Pirates 38.5% | Cubs 65.5%
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 (55.6%) | Cubs -1.5 (46.5%)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.4%)
Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have covered the run line in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, Marquee |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Wilber Dotel (1-4, 4.41 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (9-10, 3.92 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
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