The winners kept coming last night, and it's moving day with the MLB player props. I've dug myself out of a massive hole, and now I'm enjoying the late-season heater with the home run props.
Riley Greene at his price is that bat I want vs. the Rockies, who are finding themselves on the hit list every day, and Shota Imanaga is a perfect pitcher to fade with his home run numbers.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, September 11.
MLB home run props for today
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Riley Greene
Rafael Flores Jr.
Home run prediction: Riley Greene (20%)
The Colorado Rockies pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Mason Adams getting the ball.
This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers.
It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%.
He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25 as well.
Fade the Rockies until Game 162.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Rafael Flores Jr. (17%)
Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard.
That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty.
I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%.
He leads the Pittsburgh Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order.
It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh
- HR picks: 38-178, -2.46 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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