The winners kept coming last night, and it's moving day with the MLB player props. I've dug myself out of a massive hole, and now I'm enjoying the late-season heater with the home run props.
Riley Greene at his price is that bat I want vs. the Rockies, who are finding themselves on the hit list every day, and Shota Imanaga is a perfect pitcher to fade with his home run numbers.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, Sept. 11.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
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| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Riley Greene |
20% |
 Rafael Flores Jr. |
16.7% |
 Randy Arozarena |
16.7% |
| Combo | 137.7x |
Home run prediction: Riley Greene (20%)
The Colorado Rockies pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Mason Adams getting the ball.
This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers.
It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%.
He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25 as well.
Fade the Rockies until Game 162.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Rafael Flores Jr. (17%)
Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard.
That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty.
I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%.
He leads the Pittsburgh Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order.
It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Home run prediction: Randy Arozarena (22%)
You can never go wrong searching for dingers at Sutter Health Park, especially with 11-mph winds blowing out to center field.
Pitching there is never fun, but it's even worse for Jeffrey Springs. The lefty owns a 7.18 ERA at home this year with a 2.8 HR/9 compared to 1.7 HR/9 on the road.
Since June, he has allowed 14 homers at home across 31+ innings.
Randy Arozarena at 22% is the price and bat I'm landing on. His homer rate against lefties is better than against right-handers, and he has already gone deep seven times over the last 30 days with a solid .515 SLG%.
It's tough to go wrong with the right-handed Seattle bats in this matchup and setting.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: One National or Two local
- HR picks: 38-178, -2.46 units
Best home run combo for September 11
| Riley Greene |
Trade Now 137.7x |
| Rafael Flores Jr. |
|
| Randy Arozarena |
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