The New York Mets and New York Yankees enter play in strong form, both cracking the Top-5 in wins over the last 30 games.
I trust Nolan McLean more than Carlos Rodon, making the underdog an appealing target with my Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for the Subway Series opener.
Who will win Mets vs Yankees today: New York Mets (46%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The New York Mets have had a solid process against southpaws the past 30 days, ranking 10th in xSLG and 16th in xBA.
They should have an easier time turning those outputs into results against Carlos Rodon. His xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA over the last month, and he’s given up a ton of barrels (10.9%) and hard contact (45.7%).
Nolan McLean has done an exceptional job neutralizing power, allowing zero homers and two barrels during that span.
He’ll give the Mets a real chance of pulling off the upset.
Play to 49%.
COVERS INTEL: Nolan McLean's 86th percentile ranking in xSLG will make it difficult on a power-dependent Yankees offense to produce.
Mets vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)
The Mets have shown signs of improvement under the hood, but the reality is their offense hasn’t produced much vs. lefties.
They sit 27th in BA, 26th in OBP, and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is poised to take a step back, but the Mets are an unlikely candidate to put forth a true ceiling performance against him.
McLean has posted an impressive 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA on the road this season, and given up next to no power of late. He’ll make it tough on a New York Yankees offense that relies heavily on the long ball.
Back the Under to 56%.
Mets vs Yankees home run prediction: Carson Benge (13%)
Rodon leans heavily on the fastball-slider combination, and that’s what Carson Benge hits best against lefties.
He owns a .398 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 18.2% barrel rate when facing fastballs or sliders thrown by southpaws this season. All of his home runs vs. lefties have come against those two pitches.
Benge has only had two at-bats against Rodon in his career but did take him for extra bases in one of them.
Don’t be surprised if he leaves the park this time around.
- ML/RL bets: 107-93, -8.30 units
- Over/Under bets: 103-91-6, -0.61 units
Mets vs Yankees weather
Neutral impacts are expected for hitters with temperatures hovering in the high 70s and winds blowing left to right.
Mets vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Mets 45% | Yankees 56%
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (63%) | Yankees -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Mets vs Yankees trend
New York has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 25 away games (+9.55 units, 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | WPIX, YES |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (11-8, 3.06 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (5-3, 3.09 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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