THE WEEKEND IS HERE! There is so much to get into with the MLB player props market today.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 11, including why Spencer Jones is going to light up Nolan McLean.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Spencer Jones |
Over 0.5 hits | -128 |
 Lars Nootbaar |
Over 0.5 hits | -171 |
 Joc Pederson |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -112 |
Spencer Jones Over 0.5 hits (-128)
The word “value” is thrown around so loosely in this space that it has completely lost its true meaning. But when it is this obvious, you have to say it. Asking New York Yankees future slugger Spencer Jones to record JUST a hit at a price below -130, that is value.
The value is even greater when Jones is sporting a .677 SLG and .290 ISO, while posting a 27.8% ground-ball rate, 55.6% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Jones draws New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has allowed a 52.6% hard-hit rate and 31.6% ground-ball rate to the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced. Those lefties own a .292 xBA during that stretch.
We just need him to find some open grass at -128.
I snagged this prop at -125, and I would take it down to -150. Sprinkle the home run and double, as they are both hovering around +500.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, WPIX
Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 hits (-171)
A prop that is cashing at a near 72% clip through 42 elite ratings: Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lars Nootbaar to record a hit, per Batters-Box.
Mr. Nootbaar finds himself with an elite rating in the model this evening, while also covering 85.6% of Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker's pitch mix.
Nootbaar has maintained a .545 SLG and .227 ISO while generating a 22.2% ground-ball rate, 50% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Over his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, he has been the hottest bat in this Diamondbacks lineup, posting a .400 BA, .760 SLG and 1.227 OPS while producing a 60% hard-hit rate.
Rocker has still been pretty rocky against left-handed hitters. The last 30 he has faced have not generated much hard contact, but they are still making quality contact, as those lefties have a sub-400 xBA and .555 xSLG.
They are also keeping the ball elevated, with just a 21.1% ground-ball rate during that span.
I paid the juice at -165. I would not pay more than the number above. Shop around, or take his over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Sprinkle his home run and double, too.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, RSN
Joc Pederson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-112)
Sticking with this Texas vs. Arizona matchup, I am also backing a Ranger in this one. Mr. Joc Pederson’s hits + runs + RBI prop stood out.
The veteran designated hitter has been on a tear as of late, owning a .700 SLG and .450 ISO while posting a nearly 54% hard-hit rate and 23% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Over his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, he owns a .667 SLG, .967 OPS and .445 ISO. The guy has been pulverizing the baseball.
Pederson draws right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has struggled at home this season, posting a 6.66 xERA while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and a barrel rate above 15% to opposing hitters.
With Pederson likely leading off, he should have plenty of chances this evening to go over this prop. Take this down to -120.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, RSN
- Prop picks: 498-960, +2.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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