Pitcher and strikeout props keep padding the pockets, and with most of the betting eyes on the gridiron these days, the MLB player props are a little riper for the picking.
Chris Bassitt's strikeout prop is showing big value to the Over, Aaron Nola has to overcome batter familiarity, and Max Scherzer's walk prop is not priced well.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Friday, Sept. 11.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Chris Bassitt |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | +105 |
 Aaron Nola |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | -118 |
 Max Scherzer |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | -105 |
Strikeout prop: Chris Bassitt Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Chris Bassitt projects for 3.97 strikeouts today on 93 pitches and carries a fair price of -125. It's a revenge angle vs. his former team, and over his last 30 days, he has posted a respectable 7.99 K/9 while averaging nearly 18 outs per start. Five innings with four Ks is a safe floor.
The Toronto Blue Jays are not the biggest K% team, but are in a good spot to fade today. This will be their first game after a West Coast road trip, and the bats could be sleepy with the travel and time change. This offense is also in the dumps after coming off arguably its worst game of the year on Wednesday.
This has the highest expected value of all the Over strikeout props on the board today, per THE BAT projections. This was my first bet on the MLB picks page.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, MASN
Strikeout prop: Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
This market is moving to the Under, with a fair price of -150 and some books already at -140. Aaron Nola just faced the Atlanta Braves in his last start, and although he went 21 outs, he failed to get six strikeouts. The familiarity factor is with the bats.
Facing the same team in back-to-back starts is a very important input for the best baseball projections in the world and usually something that isn't priced into opening lines. Nola has been great in the second half, but his second-half FIP (4.80) is a bottom-40 mark among all MLB starters.
He's prone to the deep ball, and the Braves have him fresh in their memories. I'm buying this to -130.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, NBCSP
Pitcher walks prop: Max Scherzer Over 1.5 walks allowed (-105)
This is one of the best +EV pitcher props on the board today, with a fair price of -145/-150. Over Max Scherzer's last 46 innings, he has walked nearly a batter every two innings with 22 total walks. Even at home this year, his walk numbers are worse than on the road, with a staggering 4.4 BB/9.
If you didn't know, the matchup is almost always priced into these numbers. So if someone is selling you on it, it's usually baked in. But the Baltimore Orioles are a Top 10 BB% team in the second half, so I'm scratching my head at this price.
Scherzer can get this Over even with a 75-pitch outing, but he has had some 90+ pitch games of late. I'll play this to -130.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, MASN
- Prop picks: 33-29, +6.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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