A massive day for underdogs!
My MLB moneyline predictions for Friday's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Tampa Bay Rays.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 11.
MLB moneyline picks for September 11
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Piratesvs  Cubs |
64% |
 Rockiesvs  Tigers |
38% |
 Angelsvs  Nationals |
42% |
 Metsvs  Yankees |
45% |
 Oriolesvs  Blue Jays |
56% |
 Royalsvs  Red Sox |
36% |
 Astrosvs  Rays |
62% |
 Dodgersvs  Marlins |
66% |
 Philliesvs  Braves |
38% |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
36% |
 Guardiansvs  Twins |
52% |
 White Soxvs  Cardinals |
50% |
 Marinersvs  Athletics |
41% |
 Rangersvs  Diamondbacks |
48% |
 Padresvs  Giants |
44% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 11.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 11
Pirates vs Cubs: Chicago Cubs
Cubs win probability: 64%
Despite Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga’s 5.70 ERA over his last five starts, his underlying metrics point toward some positive regression, as he owns a 3.81 xERA and 1.27 WHIP during that stretch.
The Cubs’ bats have been hot and should be able to hold down the Pirates in this one.
The biggest worry: Can the Cubs’ bullpen hold it down?
Rockies vs Tigers: Colorado Rockies
Rockies win probability: 38%
Why would you pay that much juice for a Tigers team that owns a sub-90 wRC+, .293 wOBA and .140 ISO over its last six games? Over their last 21 games, those numbers are even worse.
Tigers left-hander Framber Valdez has been better in his most recent starts, but if the offense can’t score, how are the Tigers going to win?
Take the dog.
Angels vs Nationals: Los Angeles Angels
Angels win probability: 42%
Similar to why I like the Rockies, Nationals starter Cade Cavalli has been outstanding, but the Washington bats are ice cold. Yusei Kikuchi has been decent enough over his last three starts to give me some trust in him to hold it down.
Plus, the Angels have posted a 111 wRC+, .736 OPS and 42% hard-hit rate over their last six games.
If the Angels’ offense stays hot, Kikuchi should be able to do enough to get this one home.
Mets vs Yankees: New York Mets
Mets win probability: 45%
The dogs are barking today!
The Mets not only have hotter bats than the Yankees, but their starter is red-hot too.
Nolan McLean sports a 0.95 ERA, 2.78 xERA and 1.05 WHIP, while allowing just a 2% barrel rate over his last three starts.
Take the dog, again.
Orioles vs Blue Jays: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Mad Max may be a dinosaur, but he has been lights out in his last few outings. Max Scherzer owns a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while limiting hard contact over his last three starts.
The Blue Jays’ bats are on fire, too, posting a 116 wRC+, .335 wOBA and .757 OPS over the last week.
Trust the hotter bird.
Royals vs Red Sox: Kansas City Royals
Royals win probability: 36%
Sonny Gray has been lights out all season long, but the Red Sox bats are not nearly as hot as the Royals.
Plus, despite Seth Lugo’s very high ERA over his last five outings, his expected ERA is below 4.00, pointing toward some positive regression.
Take the dog. Don’t pay juice for a cold lineup.
Astros vs Rays: Tampa Bay Rays
Rays win probability: 62%
Rays or nothing, and the price isn’t that bad, as both the Rays’ bats and right-hander Drew Rasmussen have been lights out.
With Astros superstar Yordan Alvarez ice cold, it brings down the value of this team. Take the hometown team.
Dodgers vs Marlins: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 66%
It’s hard not to back the Dodgers in this spot. Blake Snell has been pitching at a very high level since returning, and the bats are heating back up. The Dodgers are the look here.
Miami’s bats have been hot, too, but right-hander Ryan Gusto owns a 5.71 xERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last three starts. It’s hard to trust that against a lineup like the Dodgers.
Phillies vs Braves: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies win probability: 38%
Braves left-hander Chris Sale will likely have 10+ strikeouts in this matchup, and I still think the Phillies can win this game. The Braves are FROZEN at the dish, posting just a 38 wRC+ over their last six games. League average is 100!
Plus, Aaron Nola has been extremely serviceable over his last five starts, posting a 1.80 ERA, 2.60 xERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Take the dog. Do not back an ice-cold lineup.
Reds vs Brewers: Cincinnati Reds
Reds win probability: 36%
If Elly De La Cruz can stay hot for the Reds, they should be in a great spot against Dustin May, who has posted a 7.27 ERA over his last five starts.
With both starters struggling as of late, there’s no reason to pay juice on the Brewers.
Guardians vs Twins: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians win probability: 52%
Not a terrible price to pay for a road favorite taking on a team that has an 82 wRC+, .285 wOBA and .635 OPS over its last six games.
Plus, Twins right-hander Taj Bradley is a fastball-heavy pitcher who gives up a lot of hard-hit balls. Meanwhile, Parker Messick has been nails over his last five outings.
Take the road favorite here.
White Sox vs Cardinals: St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 50%
The White Sox can’t score. After getting swept by the Pirates this week, they are lifeless, and even when they show signs of life, they can’t drive runs in.
They are a full fade until they bounce back.
Mariners vs Athletics: Athletics
Athletics win probability: 41%
Give me yet another underdog, as the Athletics are home dogs against the ice-cold bats of Seattle.
Neither team has been swinging a hot bat as of late, so why pay juice for a team with a wRC+ under 80 and a starting pitcher sporting a 6.59 ERA over his last five outings?
Take the home dog.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks: Texas Rangers
Rangers win probability: 48%
Merrill Kelly has been very solid over his last few outings, but his home numbers are a major concern, as he owns a 6.66 xERA and 1.45 WHIP while giving up a lot of hard-hit balls.
Plus, the Rangers’ bats are scorching hot at the moment, posting a 121 wRC+, .344 wOBA and .785 OPS over their last 12 games.
Padres vs Giants: San Francisco Giants
Giants win probability: 44%
Tight pants Robbie Ray has been too inconsistent to trust against the Giants this evening. In his last three starts, he has a 6.02 xERA and 1.61 WHIP.
With Rafael Devers and the Giants’ bats finding their stride over the last few weeks, backing them as a dog is worth it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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