NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props for Week 1

It's time to get back on the NFL anytime touchdown train this weekend, and boy, are there some great spots among the NFL picks to take advantage of before roles are figured out and the books catch on.

I have my favorite touchdown for each game, a fair price, and a grade for easy TD digestion. Odds move, but the earlier you lock these in, the better. Let's have another great year after going over 15 units last season. 

These are my favorite touchdown picks for Week 1.

Best Week 1 anytime touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Probability
CLE vs  JAX	Thomas 27.4%
CHI vs CAR	Loveland 34%
TB vs CIN	Irving 45.5%
NO vs  DET	Wright 8.3%
BUF vs  HOU	Montgomery 54.5%
NYJ vs  TEN	Wilson 29.4%
BAL vs  IND	Lane 20%
ATL vs  PIT	Dowdle 41.7%
LV vs MIA	Bech 9.5%
GB vs MIN	Addison 28.4%
ARI vs  LAC	Allgeier 31.4%
WAS vs  PHI	Goedert 30.3%
DAL vs NYG	Likely 26.3%
DEN vs  KC	Waddle 32.5%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Browns vs Jaguars

Brian Thomas (27.4% at Kalshi) GRADE: A

The Jaguars are trying to get Brian Thomas going after the disaster that was last season, and those moves might revive the burner. Thomas was useless over the middle under first-year offensive coach Liam Coen, who is pushing him to the “X” receiver and using him more like the vertical threat he was in his rookie year.

Travis Hunter is still not a major threat, so last year’s setup with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington will still be the norm for Thomas, who has had a great lead-up to the season. 

Cleveland is obviously without Myles Garrett, but this is still a great defense; however, it’s not a bad one to attack early, as it will be learning a new scheme under first-year DC Mike Rutenberg, who replaces Jim Schwartz after he bailed on the organization after not getting the HC job. 

If he looks good in Week 1, bettors will never see a payout like this all season.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

Colston Loveland (34% at Kalshi) GRADE: A+

Chicago head coach Ben Johnson wants his offense to score more points per game than any unit before it. No big deal, right?

I have to side with that kind of confidence, and with an offense that might have to feature Colston Loveland in the passing game because of injuries. The gap between the TD market implied probability (34%) and his actual chance of scoring (fair around 40%) is a big Week 1 advantage for early bettors.

Loveland averaged 66 yards per game after Week 8 last season while adding touchdowns in five of those games (six total). Wide receiver Rome Odunze (leg) suffered his injury last Thursday and didn't practice Tuesday, while Luther Burden has been out for about a month with a groin injury and is working his way back to practice this week.

It's the perfect spot at the wrong price for Caleb Williams' favorite target over the second half of last season. Williams finished last year with the third-highest deep-throw rate, and Loveland, who doesn't drop balls and played 40% of his snaps in the slot or out wide, could take full advantage as the healthiest pass catcher on the roster.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Bucky Irving (45.5% at Kalshi) GRADE: A+

Are you telling me I can get a potential 20-touch running back facing the Bengals at better than 50% to score the first touchdown on Sunday?

Sean Tucker has already been labeled a game-time decision by head coach Todd Bowles, which leaves Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell atop a Tampa backfield that lost Rachaad White. Injuries have hurt Irving in the past, but he's good to go in a game carrying a Week 1-high 51.5-point total.

There are changes on the Bengals' defense, but this was the worst tackling team in football a year ago. Cincinnati allowed the most yards after catch per reception and 162 total yards per game to opposing running backs. This could be one of the longest probabilities we see all year for an RB1 to score against the Bengals.

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Brock Wright (8.3% at Kalshi) GRADE: B

Here is another long shot that has my attention because of the possible heavy sets the Lions might run this year under new OC Drew Petzing. While in Arizona, he ran 2-TE sets at the sixth-highest rate in the league, and 3-TE sets at the highest rate. That playbook alone should get Brock Wright, who was already playing 35+ snaps last season, on the field more. Over the last two seasons, 15 of 33 passes inside the 5-yard line for Petzing's Cardinals went to a tight end.

Ty Conklin is behind him on the depth chart, but he also just signed on September 1. The real bread and butter is the health of Sam LaPorta, who is dealing with a hip injury. He missed every preseason game and could be on a snap count early in the season after missing the second half of last year.

Keep an eye on LaPorta's practice reps today, because Wright is lying in the weeds with a TE-heavy offense at a huge price. Just a half-unit for now. 

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

David Montgomery (54.5% at Kalshi) GRADE: A

I bought this at 54.5% but have the fair price closer to 60%.

It's Week 1, and I want a layup to get on the board. I don't see many running backs as likely to score Sunday as David Montgomery. The Bills gave up a league-high 18 TDs to opposing running backs last year and are a worse unit this season after losing five starters and bringing in a new defensive scheme.

The Texans were one of the worst teams near the goal line last season, and they'll make it a point to change that narrative this year with their new back. Montgomery should get the majority of the red-zone work, and Houston can flirt with four TDs.

New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans

Garrett Wilson (29.4% at Kalshi) GRADE: A+

I bought this at 29.4% and have a fair price of 35%.

Give me a 100-catch, 1,100-yard alpha receiver with competent quarterback play in a great offensive matchup at 33.3% or better every single time. The Titans are being priced like the Rams at this number. Either that, or the Jets' offense is being priced with Brady Cook under center.

Garrett Wilson could see 40% of the targets on Sunday, and this price is simply too long.

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Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

Ja'Kobi Lane (20% at Kalshi) GRADE: A-

I got this at 20%, but there's room for it to move as high as 28.6% if the injury luck falls in his favor.

Ja'Kobi Lane has been a standout all camp, and the third-round rookie found the end zone in the preseason. He could have a great opportunity to contribute Sunday indoors in a potential high-scoring game, with Zay Flowers and Devontez Walker limited at practice this week while Rashod Bateman has been dealing with potential charges stemming from June.

The Baltimore offense will want to start with a bang under new head coach Jesse Minter and OC Declan Doyle, who have been working on getting Lamar Jackson back to his MVP ways in his age-30 season.

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Rico Dowdle (41.7% at Kalshi) GRADE: A-

I got this at 41.7%, but if he has the goal-line role, this should be around 45.5%.

Jaylen Warren has been in Pittsburgh much longer than Rico Dowdle, but this is Mike McCarthy's guy, and Dowdle might be the early-down back, according to some Pittsburgh beat writers.

This is an Atlanta defense that can be beaten early in the season, as the Falcons are missing some big names. Jalon Walker is out for the season, James Pearce Jr. is suspended, Billy Bowman and Za'Darius Smith are limited, and JD Bertrand is out. This gutted pass rush could create an extra trip or two to the red zone for the Steelers and Dowdle.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

Jack Bech (9.5% at Kalshi) GRADE: B

I bought this at 10.5x with a fair price of 7.5x.

This one is all about the price, as 9.5% or 10.5x is simply far too much for a starting wide receiver on any team, let alone one facing the Dolphins.

Jack Bech secured the No. 3 receiver spot behind Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor. He's projected for just a couple of catches and 23 yards, but this is the price of a WR5, a player likely to see 10-15 snaps, not someone who is likely to see 30+ like Tyler Lockett did a season ago.

This is a long shot for a reason, but one that should be priced closer to 6.5x. If you want more action in this game, keep an eye on the Raiders' tight end usage, as Klint Kubiak used 12 personnel at the fifth-highest rate last year. Michael Mayer (7x for a TD) could see a bigger role.

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Tyler Allgeier (31.4% at Kalshi) GRADE: B+

The Cardinals might be the biggest dogs of the week, but I can't pass up an RB1 who is likely to get the red-zone work at 35% or lower. The former Falcon was named the starter ahead of Jeremiyah Love, who is dealing with an ankle injury.

It's an indoor game that could see some scoring, and despite being a 9-point dog, this is a price that's too tough to ignore. I was looking at the Chargers' tight end situation, as they're expected to run heavier sets, but the TE trio isn't exactly exciting.

Bijan Robinson backers know very well that Tyler Allgeier can find the end zone.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison (28.4% at Kalshi) GRADE: A-

This is the best +EV touchdown per the projections at Covers. The fair probability is 32.3%.

This Vikings offense might have the best quarterback play it's had in a season, and Jordan Addison should see plenty of single coverage with the eyes on Justin Jefferson. The Packers' defense is another good unit to fade after it fell apart last year without Micah Parsons. The change at defensive coordinator adds another wrinkle to this Packers defense.

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert (30.3% at Kalshi) GRADE: A

This is the highest-rated touchdown at this probability, according to Covers' new Anytime Touchdown Value Index. Just another tool to help you sort through the noise, get to your pick a lot quicker, and give you back your time.

There isn't a category across the many inputs where Dallas Goedert isn't showing value. I know matching last year's 11 TDs will be tough, but the matchup, scoring environment, red-zone role, role certainty, and relative price are all pointing to a buy in Week 1. He scores an 80 on the CATVI.

It could be a better passing offense, with more looks under center for Jalen Hurts, while the loss of A.J. Brown opens up more targets for the tight end.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Isaiah Likely (26.3% at Kalshi) GRADE: A

The new tight end could become the No. 2 option in a passing game that has plenty of upside in the opener. Isaiah Likely signed a three-year deal, so the G-Men are committed, while Malik Nabers obviously comes with some health concerns. There are also reports that Jaxson Dart and Likely have created a solid bond throughout camp and the preseason.

Getting a No. 2 option in the passing game comes at a price of around 30%, especially in a neutral, high-total game. I'm buying the Dart/Likely juice.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jaylen Waddle (32.5% at Kalshi) GRADE: A-

I bought this at 3x with a fair price of 2.7x.

I want this new deep connection to work, and if the talk out of camp is true, this is going to be a great price. Bo Nix knows how to avoid sacks, and Waddle's 13.06 aDOT last year would have led the Broncos. Nix just needs to improve his deep ball, which ranked in the bottom third of the league last year. He still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards, and hopefully new playcaller Davis Webb can get more out of his QB.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost three of their four leading snap-getters in the secondary, including CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook and CB Jaylen Watson. There's plenty of uncertainty in this new secondary, and the early part of the season is likely the best time to fade it before DC Steve Spagnuolo works his magic.

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