Congrats, you've made it to the weekend! To celebrate, why not take in our MLB expert picks for tonight?
Our free MLB picks are highlighted by the Diamondbacks and Athletics, who are offering value in the late part of the slate on Friday, Sept. 11.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: STL ML |
50% |
 Jon Metler: ARI ML |
54% |
 Neil Parker: CHC -1.5 |
47% |
 Joe Osborne: ATH ML |
41% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Cardinals moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
I was on the White Sox yesterday, but it's a different story today. They just got swept at home by the Pirates and put up a donut last night. Now they have a tough travel spot, opening a series against the Cardinals today.
The Cardinals have a fair probability of 58.3%, per THE BAT, and are the best +EV ML on the board today. Matthew Liberatore's 5.57 ERA might scare some away on the surface, but his 3.22 xFIP in the second half is the 24th-best mark among all starters, while his .373 BABIP and 56.6% LOB% are unsustainable.
Chicago is also missing one of its best arms, lefty Hagen Smith, who threw 33 pitches last night. Chicago has clenched butt cheeks right now, and that division lead is slipping. This roster knows nothing about adversity, and it could be an ugly finish.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, Cardinals.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 54% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button on that number because I price the Diamondbacks closer to a 57% favorite in this spot.
Kumar Rocker of the Texas Rangers relies heavily on hitters chasing his slider out of the zone to generate outs. However, the Diamondbacks are a disciplined lineup and one of the better teams in MLB at avoiding swings on pitches outside the strike zone.
That should force Rocker to use his fastball more often in the zone, which could be a disaster against this lineup. Diamondbacks hitters such as Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll and others excel at catching up to 95-plus mph fastballs and consistently putting the barrel on the ball.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, DBacks.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imagana is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts.
Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.
Pittsburgh righty Wilber Dotel is scheduled to make his first career start before giving way to a bullpen that ranks eighth in xERA and 13th in xFIP across the past 30 days, but is also a potentially tired group of relievers that was tasked with 12 1/3 innings during their three-game series that wrapped up Thursday night.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SNP, MARQ
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Athletics moneyline
Price: 41¢ at Polymarket
Let’s make a dog bark tonight in Sacramento!
Jeffrey Springs isn’t elite, but this matchup is. Mariners hitters own a brutal .457 OPS against him across 116 at-bats, with only four extra-base hits. Seattle also ranks dead-last in OPS against lefties over the past month.
George Kirby’s road struggles add fuel to the fire, with Seattle losing his last five away starts. Throw in a major bullpen advantage for the A’s — a 2.54 ERA versus Seattle’s 6.23 over the past two weeks — and this dog has plenty of bite.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSCA
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| ATL ML | 64% |
| Read analysis in our Phillies vs. Braves predictions | |
| NYM ML | 46% |
| Read analysis in our Mets vs. Yankees predictions | |
| CIN/MIL o7.5 | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Reds vs. Brewers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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