MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 25, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, Jul 25 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Colt Keith logo
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park's CF fences are the 2nd-deepest.. As it relates to plate discipline, Colt Keith's talent is quite weak, sporting a 3.75 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 15th percentile.
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson logo
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.. Spencer Torkelson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Willy Adames logo
Willy Adames o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.51
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Willy Adames will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. In the last 7 days, Willy Adames's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.5% up to 23.1%.. In the last week, Willy Adames's 46.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.5%.
Total Bases
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Jo Adell will have the upper hand in today's game.. Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jo Adell has experienced some negative variance given the .035 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.. By putting up a 40.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jo Adell finds himself in the 99th percentile for power.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. CJ Abrams will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.75
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team playing today.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 park in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in the majors.. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.6-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Willson Contreras meets a tough challenge today.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sat, Jul 25 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. LoanDepot Park has the 6th-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. In the last week, Manny Machado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 22.2%.. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 16.7% on the season to 38.9% over the last week.
Total Bases
Esteury Ruiz logo
Esteury Ruiz u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Esteury Ruiz is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst park in the game for right-handed home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Esteury Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, Jul 25 • 6:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jose Ramirez logo
Jose Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Tropicana Field profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (63.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Total Bases
Yandy Diaz logo
Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average ability.. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (51.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Yandy Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, Jul 25 • 6:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Chicago Cubs logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes has a lofty 5.27 ERA over his last five starts, with the Pirates cashing the Over in each of those games.

Both bullpens are also shaky, with Pittsburgh’s pen owning the 10th-highest ERA in MLB (4.40), slightly worse than Chicago's (4.04).

Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (+114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Paul Skenes’ ERA is up to 3.43 compared to his 2.35 career average, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is trending up with a stingy 1.62 ERA over his last three outings. 

Imanaga will dominate a Pirates lineup that’s missing three everyday players and ranks 19th in runs scored as well as 20th in SLG since the All-Star break.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Taylor Ward logo
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Taylor Ward hits many of his flyballs to center field (43% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Ward will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Leody Taveras logo
Leody Taveras o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #6 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Leody Taveras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (46.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Leody Taveras will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Checking in at the 77th percentile, Leody Taveras has posted a .319 BABIP this year.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena logo
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Christian Walker logo
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Using Statcast data, Christian Walker ranks in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.400.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak logo
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Milwaukee Brewers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Total Bases
Jake Bauers logo
Jake Bauers o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. American Family Field has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league.. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Feltner throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage in today's matchup.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Royce Lewis logo
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Royce Lewis is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#2-worst on the slate).. Royce Lewis will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Byron Buxton logo
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (-135)
Projection 2.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Byron Buxton projects as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 95°.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.. Byron Buxton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Duran logo
Ezequiel Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.32
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Ezequiel Duran has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Ezequiel Duran will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Burger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the worst park in the league for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jake Burger will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ New York Mets logo NYM Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.. Kyle Tucker has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 11.5% over the past 14 days.
Total Bases
Andy Pages logo
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Andy Pages is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. Extreme flyball bats like Andy Pages are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.. Over the last 14 days, Andy Pages's 30.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez logo
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
Total Bases
JJ Bleday logo
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
JJ Bleday is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 86°.. JJ Bleday will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game.. JJ Bleday is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 1 Computer Pick
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.

What kinds of MLB picks do we make?

Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.