Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 29, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
ATL
@
CIN
Fri, May 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+577)
Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT. He’s in strong form right now with the team’s third-best slugging percentage and wOBA over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month. He’ll face Chris Paddack, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his bottom-10 xFIP among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real. Pitcher-vs.-hitter history is usually secondary, but it’s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.
SD
@
WAS
Fri, May 29 • 6:45 PM ET
MIN
@
PIT
Fri, May 29 • 6:45 PM ET
These are two tantalizing starters: Taj Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, whereas Jared Jones hits 100 mph on the radar gun and had a 3.18 botERA last we saw him in 2024. The main concern is the weather (hot, wind blowing out), but that's mitigated at PNC park (second-lowest park factor for home runs).
Jared Jones makes an electric return. He strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings, which'll play against a Minnesota lineup with the third-highest K% (24.6%) and third-lowest contact% (73.6%) in the last 20 days. Pittsburgh demolishes RHP (112 wRC+ in L20) while Minnesota certainly does not (86).
TOR
@
BAL
Fri, May 29 • 7:05 PM ET
BAL (-110)
The Jays have the pressure of getting back to .500 today, but they’re also extremely shorthanded on the mound. Toronto is rolling with a bullpen game and is likely without its three best relievers in Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman, and closer Louis Varland. All three have pitched on back-to-back days, and Toronto hasn’t had a day off all week. Triple-A call-up Austin Voth will likely be asked to cover innings, and he owns a career 4.70 ERA across 360 MLB innings with 61 home runs allowed. This grades out as one of the biggest +EV plays on the board today, per THE BAT projections, which have a fair price around -188 on this moneyline. Reliever availability is a massive edge that doesn’t appear to be fully priced into the current number.
MIA
@
NYM
Fri, May 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Max Meyer dominated the Mets last weekend, tossing seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts while allowing just one hit. Miami has won eight of the last 10 meetings and covered the run line in three of the last four. Meyer has gone Over his strikeout prop in three straight starts and faces a Mets lineup striking out frequently.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -145)
Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.
BOS
@
CLE
Fri, May 29 • 7:10 PM ET
LAA
@
TB
Fri, May 29 • 7:10 PM ET
CHC
@
STL
Fri, May 29 • 7:15 PM ET
The Cubs enter on a two-game winning streak and have covered the run line in three straight wins over the Cardinals, who have lost four consecutive games. Chicago's offense has scored 17 runs in its last two contests, while Shota Imanaga and Kyle Leahy have both struggled recently, creating value on the Over.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -120)
Shota Imanaga and Kyle Leahy have consistently delivered clean opening frames, combining for a 17-4 NRFI record. St. Louis hasn't scored in the first inning in nine consecutive games, while Chicago ranks among the league's least productive first-inning offenses. Expect both starters to settle in quickly.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, May 29 • 7:40 PM ET
KC
@
TEX
Fri, May 29 • 8:05 PM ET
The Royals have won six of their last seven meetings with the Rangers and turn to Stephen Kolek, who is coming off a complete-game shutout. Kolek owns a 2.77 ERA and has stayed Under 5.5 hits allowed in every start. With MacKenzie Gore also pitching well, the Under is appealing.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -130)
Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.
MIL
@
HOU
Fri, May 29 • 8:10 PM ET
SF
@
COL
Fri, May 29 • 8:40 PM ET
NYY
@
ATH
Fri, May 29 • 9:40 PM ET
NYY -1.5 (+108)
Would play it down to -110.
Luis Severino’s contact profile is a bad fit against New York. His 45th-percentile hard-hit rate and 35th-percentile barrel rate are real concerns against a Yankees lineup built to punish mistakes, led by an MLB-best 11.1% barrel rate and the overall depth of hard-hitting bats.
AZ
@
SEA
Fri, May 29 • 10:10 PM ET
PHI
@
LAD
Fri, May 29 • 10:15 PM ET
This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total Home Runs (+527)
Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field. That’s good news for a Bryce Harper bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber at 37.5%. Harper’s fly-ball rate hasn’t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There is often value targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty-vs.-lefty matchup.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+401)
TB (+115)
Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.
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