Let's keep the week rolling with tonight's MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate.
See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Tuesday, July 28!
MLB moneyline picks for July 28
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Guardiansvs  Reds (Game 1) |
-150 |
 Oriolesvs  Tigers |
-133 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Pirates |
+104 |
 Rangersvs  Rays |
+160 |
 Philliesvs  Marlins |
+102 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Nationals |
-130 |
| Guardians vs Reds (Game 2) |
-120 |
 Bravesvs  Mets |
-147 |
 Royalsvs  Twins |
-150 |
 Yankeesvs  White Sox |
-125 |
 Cubsvs  Cardinals |
-106 |
 Astrosvs  Angels |
-102 |
 Red Soxvs  Athletics |
+135 |
 Rockiesvs  Padres |
-178 |
 Brewersvs  Giants |
-144 |
 Marinersvs  Dodgers |
-178 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-28.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 28
Guardians vs Reds (Game 1): Reds (-150)
Reds win probability: 60%
I wrote up this exact matchup yesterday when the Reds were -156 favorites, and I'll stand by that decision with the pitching matchup staying the same.
Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi owns a 7.43 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over his last three starts, while allowing a 55% hard hit rate and 12% barrel rate. That's a recipe for disaster, especially in a hitter-friendly park like GAPB.
On the other side, Chase Burns has done an excellent job protecting his home field this season, posting a 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at Great American Ball Park.
Orioles vs Tigers: Tigers (-133)
Tigers win probability: 57%
With Dean Kremer carrying a 5.33 ERA over his last five starts, I like backing the Tigers in this spot. On the other side, right-hander Troy Melton has been outstanding this season, posting a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
Detroit's offense has not been scorching hot lately, but the underlying metrics are encouraging. The Tigers have continued to make plenty of hard contact while barreling baseballs at a strong rate, making this feel like a good spot for their bats to finally break through.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+104)
Diamondbacks win probability: 49%
Does it disgust me to back Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt? Yes, of course. But he has actually been pretty solid over his last five starts, posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
On top of that, I want to keep riding these Arizona bats. Over their last 21 games, they have come alive, posting a 110 wRC+, .331 wOBA, and .752 OPS.
On the other side, the Pirates have struggled at the plate, owning a 73 wRC+, .269 wOBA, and .569 OPS over their last six games. I'll gladly back the hotter lineup at plus money.
Rangers vs Rays: Rangers (+160)
Rangers win probability: 38%
Trust me, I know Cal Quantrill is on the mound tonight for the Rangers, but I'm not paying -163 for the Rays when Griffin Jax hasn't exactly been sharp over his last five outings.
The RHP owns a 5.00 ERA while allowing an 11.27% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
On top of that, the Rangers offense has been scorching hot at the plate. I'll gladly take the hotter lineup and the plus money instead of laying juice with Tampa Bay.
Phillies vs Marlins: Phillies (+102)
Phillies win probability: 50%
With the Marlins coming off a walk-off win last night after the Phillies scored 10+ runs on Sunday, I think this sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for Philadelphia.
On top of that, I have no interest in laying juice with a Marlins team that owns a 73 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and .607 OPS over its last 12 games.
The Phillies haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire offensively either, but I'll happily take the plus money with the better lineup in this spot.
Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (-130)
Nationals win probability: 56%
I simply can't back an offense that owns a 73 wRC+, .112 ISO, and .613 OPS over its last 21 games, especially when it's facing a lineup that's posted a 157 wRC+, .255 ISO, and .914 OPS over that same stretch.
I'll gladly lay a little juice with one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball.
Give me the Nationals.
Guardians vs Reds (Game 2): Guardians (-120)
Guardians win probability: 55%
Despite Brady Singer being solid over his last five games, he still has an expected ERA of 4.86 at GABP, where he is allowing 40% hard hit and a 11.72% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
On the other side, Gavin Williams owns a 2.44 xERA over his last five starts. He is allowing a bit of hard contact, but I’m not concerned.
Overall, I think leaning with Williams is the better side, with both offenses a bit shaky over the last week-plus.
Braves vs Mets: Braves (-147)
Braves win probability: 60%
After the New York Mets hung 14 runs on the Atlanta Braves Monday night, this feels like the perfect bounce-back spot for ATL.
I mentioned it several times in Monday's moneyline predictions; I'm always inclined to fade a team coming off a double-digit scoring performance. We saw that trend play out Monday, as several teams that scored 10+ runs on Sunday came back down to earth the following day.
On top of that, Atlanta hands the ball to Chris Sale, who is more than capable of cooling off a Mets lineup that has been swinging some red-hot bats.
Royals vs Twins: Twins (-150)
Twins win probability: 60%
As odd as it is for me to say this, I like Taj Bradley today...
The Twins right-hander has really been dealing lately. Over his last five starts, he owns a 2.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He simply looks like the better pitcher right now.
On the other side, Seth Lugo has had a clunker of a season, posting a 5.40 ERA on the road. Both offenses have cooled off, so I'll take the hotter arm in this matchup.
Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-125)
Yankees win probability: 56%
I find it very hard not to back the Yankees in this spot when the pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole vs. Anthony Kay. Cole has been underwhelming over his last few starts, but his underlying metrics suggest better days are ahead. On the other side, Kay owns a 4.97 xERA over his last three starts.
The Yankees offense hasn't exactly lived up to expectations lately, but this feels like another matchup they should be able to take advantage of.
Cubs vs Cardinals: Cubs (-106)
Cubs win probability: 52%
Sure, Colin Rea is on the mound for the Cubs this evening, and he has been atrocious all season long. However, I'm not backing a Cardinals offense that owns a 62 wRC+, .257 wOBA, and .071 ISO over its last six games, especially when the Cubs have posted a 128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, and .813 OPS across their last 21.
I think the Cubs can do enough damage against right-hander Michael McGreevy, while Rea does his best to keep things together. That's enough for me to back Chicago in this spot.
Astros vs Angels: Astros (-102)
Astros win probability: 50%
Both pitchers have been nails this season, but I'm leaning toward the offense that has been seeing the ball much better over the last month, the Astros.
Over their last 21 games, Houston owns a 107 wRC+, .325 wOBA, and .182 ISO. Meanwhile, the Angels have posted an 87 wRC+, .294 wOBA, and .106 ISO over that same stretch.
Give me the better lineup and the better overall team.
Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+135)
Athletics win probability: 42%
The Red Sox have cooled off offensively over the last few games, and I think there's some value in backing the Athletics here.
Their offense has started to come together over the last few games, and I have no interest in laying juice on a team coming off a massive offensive performance. I'll take the value with the Athletics in this spot.
Rockies vs Padres: Padres (-178)
Padres win probability: 64%
I don't recommend laying this much juice on a moneyline, but with how bad Michael Lorenzen has been, you might have to. On the season, he owns a 6.71 ERA, 4.85 xERA, and 1.78 WHIP. His road numbers aren't much better.
On top of that, the Rockies offense has gone cold, posting a 77 wRC+, .297 wOBA, and .145 ISO over its last 12 games.
Meanwhile, the Padres have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball, owning a 141 wRC+, .199 ISO, and .841 OPS over that same stretch.
Give me the Friars!!
Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-144)
Brewers win probability: 59%
I smell a Brewers bounce-back tonight after they fell 3-0 to the Giants last night. Now sitting as a -144 favorite with Logan Henderson on the mound, who has been very solid this season, I think this sets up as a great spot for Milwaukee.
The Giants counter with Landen Roupp, who has also pitched well. However, San Francisco's offense has not. Over their last 12 games, the Giants own a 97 wRC+, 36% hard hit rate, and 6% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have generated a 41.6% hard hit rate and 7.9% barrel rate over that same stretch, while posting a 119 wRC+.
Mariners vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-178)
Dodgers win probability: 64%
With Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners, I have to back the Dodgers. The Seattle righty is simply too fastball-heavy and too unreliable, and I expect the Dodgers to be all over anything he leaves in the zone.
On top of that, the Mariners offense has been fairly lifeless over the last month, posting an 88 wRC+, .292 wOBA, and .130 ISO across its last 21 games.
It's a lot of juice to lay, but I think it's the right side.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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