After rain washed out the scheduled series opener, the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds will kick off the Battle of Ohio with a doubleheader this afternoon.
With Slade Cecconi in poor form, my Guardians vs Reds predictions are eyeing Cincy to grab a victory in Game 1.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 28.
Who will win Guardians vs Reds today: Reds moneyline (-155)
Slade Cecconi is struggling lately for the Cleveland Guardians. The righty owns a 5.48 xERA across his last four appearances, allowing 1.40 HR/9 and an alarming 47.8% hard-hit rate.
As for Chase Burns, he continues to shove. The Cincinnati Reds stud has a 3.66 FIP over the last month, limiting opponents to a 37.7% hard-hit rate.
Also, more than half of Cleveland's lineup has a run value of one or fewer against the four-seam fastball, which Burns throws over 57% of the time.
I'll play this pick up to -160.
COVERS INTEL: The Guardians have produced just a 28.7% hard-hit rate over their last seven games, well below their 34.4% season average. That gives Burns a strong path to control contact with his four-seamer-heavy approach.
Guardians vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-131)
The Under is the better angle here. While Cecconi is vulnerable, Cincinnati’s offense has not shown enough recent form to suggest they'll explode offensively. The Reds have posted a 59 wRC+ and .131 ISO over the last week.
Cleveland has been better but still not elite, carrying a 96 wRC+ and .169 ISO over its last seven games. Burns also has a strong matchup against a Guardians lineup that has not made much loud contact lately.
The bullpens support a lower-scoring script, too. Cincinnati’s relief corps owns a 3.65 xERA over the last week, while Cleveland’s bullpen has posted a 3.16 FIP during that span.
I'll play this pick up to -140 or even go with Under 8.5 at a better number, if available.
- ML/RL bets: 36-47, -15.34 units
- Over/Under bets: 46-35, +4.47 units
Guardians vs Reds weather
After a rainy night in Cincinnati, the skies are clear and the temperatures are humid, with wind blowing out to right-center field. This could result in more carry.
Guardians vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Guardians +138 | Reds -144
- Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-138) | Reds -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-133) | Under 8.5 (+127)
Guardians vs Reds trend
The Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Cincinnati. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Reds.
How to watch Guardians vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Guardians.TV, Reds.TV |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA) |
Guardians vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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