The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and there's no bigger ticket available than left-handed starter Tarik Skubal.
Skubal has been baseball's best pitcher over the last several seasons. The Detroit Tigers lefty has won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards, and while he won't win a third in 2026, he is still making headlines.
With the 29-year-old set to hit free agency following the season, trade rumors are swirling ahead of the August 3 deadline.
Kalshi's market for Tarik Skubal next team odds unsurprisingly lists the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorite, but there are several viable options, both on the trade front and in free agency, should the Tigers opt to keep him.
Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds
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Key Takeaways
- Hollywood ending: The Los Angeles Dodgers again feel like the favorite because, of course, they are. Every top star is inevitably linked to the bottomless pockets of the reigning World Series champs, and Tarik Skubal is no different.
- Milwaukee brewing something special?: The Milwaukee Brewers are again atop the National League Central despite trading off former ace Freddy Peralta in the offseason. A pitcher of Skubal's caliber would be huge for the home stretch.
- Home sweet home: He could (and some might say should) stay with the team that drafted him, the Detroit Tigers.
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Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds: Top Contenders
| Team | |
Yes | Buy No |
|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Dodgers |
+133 | 42% (Yes 43¢) | 58% (No 58¢) |
 Milwaukee Brewers |
+733 | 12% (Yes 12¢) | 88% (No 89¢) |
 Tampa Bay Rays |
+809 | 11% (Yes 11¢) | 90% (No 90¢) |
 Chicago Cubs |
+1011 | 9% (Yes 9¢) | 91% (No 92¢) |
 Atlanta Braves |
+1567 | 7% (Yes 6¢) | 91% (No 92¢) |
 Detroit Tigers |
+1011 | 7% (Yes 9¢) | 94% (No 94¢) |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
+1567 | 6% (Yes 6¢) | 94% (No 96¢) |
 New York Yankees |
+1900 | 6% (Yes 5¢) | 95% (No 95¢) |
| Retires/No Team | +2400 | 3% (Yes 4¢) | 97% (No 97¢) |
Data provided by Kalshi - accurate as of July 28
Yes, it may seem silly that "retires/no team" is a legitimate market here, but that's only because this will resolve on March 27, 2027, regardless of Skubal's contract status. The left-hander is scheduled to hit free agency at season's end, so if he doesn't get traded at the deadline and remains a free agent through March 27 of next year, then the "retires/no team" market will be graded as "Yes."
Los Angeles Dodgers | 'Yes' at 43¢
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites in the World Series odds, and have been an active participant at the trade deadline and in free agency over the years. They have one of baseball's most robust farm systems, and the Tigers are reportedly eyeing young, controllable starting pitching to help fill Tarik Skubal's void if they do indeed trade them.
However, recent reports suggest a deadline deal sending Skubal to Hollywood is "unlikely." Now, that doesn't necessarily kill this market, as the Dodgers would be best positioned to sign the lefty in free agency come November and beyond, but L.A. is also expected to welcome Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell back to the fold from the injured list in the coming weeks. Obviously, a player like Skubal would push them over the top, but it might be a luxury the Dodgers can justify foregoing in the short term.
Milwaukee Brewers | 'Yes' at 12¢
Landing Skubal wouldn't be the first time the Milwaukee Brewers acquired a top-shelf left-hander at the deadline in a bid to bolster their rotation for the home stretch.
Back in 2008, the Brewers sent four players (including Michael Brantley) to Cleveland in exchange for future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia. His tenure was brief (he would sign with the New York Yankees the ensuing offseason) but memorable. In 17 starts with the Brewers, Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA while tossing seven complete games. Milwaukee flopped in the NLDS, falling to the Phillies in four games.
Still, this kind of deal would make sense. The Brewers probably won't be in the mix to sign Skubal, just as they weren't in Sabathia's market, but this is a very good team that would greatly benefit in the short term by pulling off such a blockbuster. Armed with a farm system that MLB Pipeline ranked No. 1 before the season, they have the pieces that may get a deal done, too.
Tampa Bay Rays | 'Yes' at 11¢
The Tampa Bay Rays, like the Brewers, would never be in the running to sign Skubal to a long-term contract once he hits free agency. But the Rays are in the thick of the AL pennant race and have the prospect capital needed to make a play. It's somewhat against character, but Skubal anchoring their staff would provide their best opportunity to win the first World Series in franchise history (something Milwaukee is also pursuing).
Detroit Tigers | 'Yes' at 9¢
This is complicated!
The Detroit Tigers appeared destined to trade Skubal when he was recovering from elbow surgery and even after his return. But Detroit surged in the standings to get back into the AL Central and Wild Card races, pouring cold water on the idea, at least a bit.
From a pure numbers standpoint, the Tigers probably should trade him to recoup something more than a compensatory draft pick they'd receive if he leaves after declining a qualifying offer (which he certainly would).
From an optics standpoint, trading their most popular player who has carried the team to the postseason in each of the last two seasons is less appealing.
The other question is whether or not the front office burned the bridge to Skubal entirely when they fought him in arbitration and signed left-hander Framber Valdez in a move that could be interpreted as "we found your replacement."
Valdez has not lived up to expectations so far, and Skubal will command a massive contract. It seems like a foregone conclusion that he will sign elsewhere if the team doesn't trade him at the deadline, but never say never.
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How To Trade Tarik Skubal Odds On Kalshi
Navigating binary prediction markets offers a nimble, data-driven alternative to static sportsbooks, letting you trade directly on roster mechanics and media narratives.
- Account setup: Create and fund your Kalshi profile seamlessly via standard wire or bank transfer to ensure your trading capital is fully liquid ahead of breaking MLB news cycles.
- Navigate: Head over to the main baseball section, select the "Next MLB Team" category, and open the active Tarik Skubal market. Alternatively, simply type "Tarik Skubal" into the search bar, and the market should appear.
- Execute: Evaluate the board to determine if you want to buy cheap 'Yes' shares on an aggressive suitor or purchase 'No' contracts to fade a stale public consensus.
- Monitor: Track your portfolio's value in real time as the news cycle updates, allowing you to sell your shares early to lock in profits or mitigate your downside risk.
Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds FAQs
How does Kalshi determine the winning outcome for this market?
The market officially resolves based on the specific MLB franchise Tarik Skubal plays for.
This could happen by the MLB trade deadline on August 3, 2026. If he isn't traded, the market will resolve no later than March 25, 2027. At this point, if Skubal has not yet signed a new deal with a new team and is still a free agent, the market will be graded as "Yes" for "Retires/No team."
Can I trade my shares before an official trade happens?
Yes, Kalshi provides a fully fluid trading environment where you can freely buy and sell your positions at any point before the market resolves.
If an insider report causes a sudden price spike for a team you hold shares in, you can instantly liquidate for a profit. You are never permanently locked into a position until the final official contract resolution occurs.
What happens to the market if Tarik Skubal stays in Detroit?
If the trade deadline passes and the Detroit Tigers do not elect to trade Skubal, the market remains open. He will be a free agent after the season. If he signs an extension, re-signs with the Tigers after the World Series, or miraculously accepts a qualifying offer, Detroit will be graded as the winning market.
