The Toronto Blue Jays continue their series in Washington on Tuesday as +120 underdogs, sending Shane Bieber to the mound against Washington Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli.
Toronto’s offense has scuffled, but George Springer is swinging a hot bat, and a favorable curveball matchup makes him my best bet.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks for this July 28 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Nationals predictions
Blue Jays vs Nationals best bet: George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
I fell short backing George Springer yesterday, as he went 1-for-4 with a single, but I’m turning back to him for a few reasons.
First, BET99 is offering a longer number on his prop than it did yesterday, so I’d gladly play this until +125.
Here’s Springer’s hidden edge, though. Washington Nationals starter Cade Cavalli leans on his curveball as his best pitch (+2 run value), and it has driven a 10.3 K/9.
Springer just happens to be one of baseball’s best curveball hitters, batting .429 and slugging .929 against the pitch, good for a +4 run value.
Cavalli is a solid arm, but his 3.58 ERA and 8.9 H/9 show he’s beatable, especially if the curve is off. I like Springer to do damage, or at worst pick up a hit later against the bullpen.
COVERS INTEL: Over the last 10 games, Springer has four extra-base hits and sports a .333/.381/.538 slash line.
Blue Jays vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Shane Bieber Over 4.5 strikeouts is the anchor, as the veteran seems to have found his rhythm, pitching at least six innings in two straight games. Washington also struck out 13 times yesterday, and Bieber will see enough batters to surpass this modest total.
I’ll add George Springer Over 0.5 hits, riding his hot bat, and finish with the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at plus money against a Washington club that has been dreadful at home all year (22-33 straight up).
Blue Jays vs Nationals SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Shane Bieber Over 4.5 strikeouts
- George Springer Over 0.5 hits
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Blue Jays vs Nationals home run pick: Nathan Lukes (+800)
I’ll take a longshot stab on Nathan Lukes here. The Blue Jays outfielder is the team’s best road hitter, slashing .304/.357/.452 away from Rogers Centre with three home runs.
At +800, this is a pure value play, but there’s a real path to a long ball against Cavalli or the Washington bullpen.
Lukes is a well-rounded hitter who feasts on curveballs, slugging .569 against the pitch this year, and four of his five homers have come off breaking balls — a great sign against Cavalli’s junk-heavy arsenal.
Keep this to a quarter unit so you don’t get your heart broken. It hasn’t been easy picking Blue Jays home run props lately, but Lukes could be the guy on Tuesday.
- Best bets: 11-10, +0.39 units
- SGPs: 3-19, -1.89 units
- HR picks: 3-19, -1.75 units
Blue Jays vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +120 | Washington -140
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-160) | Washington -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Blue Jays vs Nationals trend
The Washington Nationals are just 22-33 SU at home this season, one of the worst home marks in baseball despite their high-powered offense. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Nationals.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-28-2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, Nationals.TV |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.70 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Cade Cavalli (7-4, 3.58 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Nationals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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