The New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs are trading at nearly pick'em odds ahead of Thursday's 7 p.m. ET puck drop at Scotiabank Arena.
These Original Six rivals have been excellent on the penalty kill, and both starting goaltenders have played well. With neither team boasting much scoring depth, my top Rangers vs. Maple Leafs prediction backs the Under 6.5.
Here's why I'm expecting a low-scoring affair in tonight's NHL picks.
TOP PICK
Rangers vs Maple Leafs prediction: Under 6.5
The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers rank first and second in penalty-kill percentage, respectively, and both teams have limited scoring depth.
New York rookie goaltender Dylan Garand has been fantastic, posting a .929 save percentage and 0.672 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. Toronto veteran Sergei Bobrovsky has also been solid, with respective marks of .902 and 0.635.
Additionally, the Rangers have been limited to a league-low 0.8 goals per road game while posting an underwhelming 45.8 Corsi For percentage and 47.2 expected goals percentage at five-on-five.
With the Maple Leafs also ranking 26th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at five-on-five, I'm backing the Under up to 54%.
COVERS INTEL: The New York Rangers have allowed the fifth-fewest goals per 60 minutes off high-danger passes, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have allowed the eighth-fewest.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs combo
Pairing the Under with Maple Leafs linemates William Nylander and Kirill Marchenko to record at least one point each offers a nice boost to the potential return.
The duo has driven possession with a 59.2 Corsi For percentage (CF%) and an impressive 4.68 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. Both players also feature on Toronto's fifth-ranked top power-play unit.
Nylander has recorded a point in seven of 11 games, while Marchenko has been even more consistent, finding the scoresheet in nine of 11.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs combo
- Under 6.5
- William Nylander 1+ points
- Kirill Marchenko 1+ points
Rangers vs Maple Leafs player prop: Dylan Garand 26+ saves
Toronto has recorded at least 29 shots in each of its last five home games, while New York has allowed an average of 29 shots over its last three road contests.
As noted, Garand has been excellent to start the season, and I'm particularly encouraged by his elite .978 save percentage against high-danger shots.
I'm backing Garand to record at least 26 saves, with this prop playable up to 51%.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Pavel Dorofeyev
After scoring 72 goals with a 14.9% shooting percentage over the past two seasons, Rangers winger Pavel Dorofeyev has found the back of the net just twice through 11 games, with his shooting percentage dropping to 5.7%.
He's developed strong chemistry with center J.T. Miller, with the duo posting an elite 59.0 CF% and 66.9 xGF% at five-on-five. Dorofeyev has also generated a team-high 5.35 individual expected goals on 35 shots and 73 attempts.
I'm backing Dorofeyev to find the back of the net up to 37%, making him one of my favorite NHL player props tonight.
- Top picks: 21-12, +14.59 units
- Combos: 2-12, -5.08 units
Rangers vs Maple Leafs odds
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- Moneyline: Rangers 52% | Maple Leafs 50%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (50%) | Under 6.5 (51%)
- Spread: Rangers +1.5 (72%) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (29%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Rangers vs Maple Leafs trend
The New York Rangers have hit the game total Under in seven of their last eight road games (+6.30 units, 75% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Rangers vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSG, TSN4 |
Rangers vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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