My NHL picks for today target another opportunity with Mitch Marner's assist prop, Luke Evangelista's increased shot volume in an expanded offensive role, and a potential goal fest in Edmonton as the Hurricanes visit the Oilers.
From a mispriced assist market to a favorable shooting matchup and two high-powered offenses capable of lighting the lamp, here are my best NHL predictions and player props for Thursday, Oct. 22.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Luke Evangelista 3+ SOG |
42% |
 Golden Knights ML + Mitch Marner assist |
36% |
  Hurricanes vs. Oilers Over 6.5 |
52% |
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Pick #1: Luke Evangelista 3+ SOG
Luke Evangelista is playing top-six minutes and skating on the top power-play unit for a Devils team that ranks first in shot-attempt percentage (SAT%). He's one of the team's top three shooters and looked healthy in his return from illness against Colorado, recording six shots on goal (SOG).
In the five games he's been healthy, Evangelista has recorded 18 shots and gone 4-1 to this Over. With an expected 17 minutes of ice time against the Ducks, I'd price this prop closer to 48%.
I combed through his markets to see which ones oddsmakers had adjusted following his increased offensive opportunities. His points prop moved from plus money to 57%, which is closer to fair value, but the SOG market hasn't moved enough. That leaves value on the Over in a favorable matchup.
- Matchup: Ducks vs. Devils matchup
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
- TV: MSG Sportsnet
Pick #2: Golden Knights ML + Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists
The price on Mitch Marner to record an assist still baffles me. It's currently 55%, but I'd price it closer to 62%. Marner has recorded an assist in eight of 11 games this season, including seven straight.
It's a great play on its own, but the Vegas Golden Knights should also be motivated after their ugliest loss of the season, a 6-2 home defeat to the Lightning on Tuesday.
Marner has formed an excellent trio with William Karlsson and Brett Howden this season. Vegas ranks seventh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) across all strengths. A Karlsson/Howden stack at around 4x is another appealing option for this matchup.
The Blues still look like a non-playoff team and have managed just two goals in each of their last two games. Their offensive struggles are another factor worth considering in our Golden Knights vs Blues prediction. If Jordan Binnington starts, I like this play even more.
- Matchup: Golden Knights vs. Blues matchup
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
- TV: ESPN+
Pick #3: Hurricanes vs. Oilers Over 6.5
Let the ruckus roll in Edmonton tonight. I've priced this Over at 57%, compared to the current 52% market probability.
The Hurricanes lead the NHL in xGF/60, but I'm not putting too much stock in their league-best xGA/60. Carolina has faced a very soft schedule to start the season. Both teams have Top-10 power plays, and there are still questions about the goaltending.
The Canes are 4-1 to the Under in their last five games, but they've faced Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Washington, and Philadelphia, some of the weakest offenses in hockey. That soft schedule is worth keeping in mind when evaluating a Hurricanes vs Oilers prediction, especially with Carolina's league-average goaltending facing a much tougher test in Edmonton.
Connor McDavid is averaging an incredible 2.89 points per game this season. Edmonton could also get Ryan Nugent-Hopkins back, while the Hurricanes should have Seth Jarvis returning to the lineup.
Both teams are capable of scoring three goals tonight. That would get us to six, leaving just one more goal needed to cash the Over 6.5.
- Matchup: Hurricanes vs. Oilers matchup
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
- TV: SNW
- Top picks: 25-23, +9.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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