Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Houston is Once Again Becoming a Problem

Prop bet #1: Musgrove in the red

San Diego Padres righty Joe Musgrove is coming off the worst outing of his campaign. 

The veteran gave up four bombs with seven earned runs across 3 2/3 frames in a home loss to the Phillies and failed to record a quality start for the fourth time in seven appearances.

His struggles have never been more evident than at Petco Park where Musgrove has served up eight home runs and 19 earned runs across 26 1/3 innings this season because his four-seamer/curveball pairing lacks the same movement as in past years, and hitters are teeing off.

The lack of movement from his two best pitches has caused command issues that will hurt him today. Musgrove’s strikeout and walk rates at home are below average, and his lack of command combined with long-ball troubles will come into play against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds have a below-average walk rate as a team, but Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, and Spencer Steer are outliers who raise the pitch count and can set up Will Benson and Jake Fraley for potentially big nights.

Finally, Musgrove has struggled with command issues at Petco, which won’t work against a Reds top-of-the-order with high walk rates and a middle-of-the-lineup that cracks righties with a .158 ISO this season. Musgrove has failed to pitch into the sixth in four of his six starts and won’t clear 17.5 outs today.

Joe Musgrove prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+118 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Gigante goes big

Cleveland Guardians righty Triston McKenzie is coming off an injury-filled 2023 and hasn’t regained the command from his four-seamer/curveball/slider trifecta that led him to success in the past. The three pitches lack much movement, and hitters have been teeing off. That bodes well for Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve tonight.

The Astros All-Star has recorded at least one hit in four of his last six games and has cleared his total bases prop in five with a .456 wOBA on the four-seamer and .455 wOBA on the off-speed stuff. 

Altuve is also raking in Space City. “Gigante” is batting .383 with 23 hits and five bombs in 60 home at-bats. He has especially torched righties at home with all five of those home runs and five doubles hits across 48 at-bats.

In addition to Altuve’s solid season thus far, he has also fared well against the Guardians starter. Altuve is 5-for-9 with a couple of bombs and two doubles. While the sample size is small, it does give a red-hot Gigante extra confidence and is a good reason why he’ll clear his 1.5 total bases prop tonight. 

Jose Altuve prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tucker time

Houston OF Kyle Tucker is another tough out in the Astros lineup, and hitting behind Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez has allowed the slugger to record 20 runs batted in this season. 

Tucker is riding a six-game hitting streak. During this streak, he has two bombs, three RBIs, and nine hits, with an average of 2.3 total bases across his previous 10 games. 

McKenzie's command issues are magnified against left-handed hitters. The Guardians starter has scattered 13 hits with nine earned runs and three bombs against southpaw lumber this season and won’t enjoy facing Tucker.

The 27-year-old boasts the second-highest hard-hit rate of his career (48.3%) with a .441 wOBA against the heater and .533 wOBA against the off-speed stuff. McKenzie has struggled with both pitches, especially against lefties, and those woes will likely continue tonight.

Finally, Tucker seems to enjoy hitting in Space City. He’s hit five bombs with four two-baggers across 49 at-bats. I expect Tucker to continue his six-game hitting streak against the struggling Guardians righty and clear his 1.5 total bases prop tonight. 

Kyle Tucker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)