MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Addison Barger in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Addison Barger is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in MLB for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in MLB for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Sanchez has a 2.79 ERA with .229 OBA through 16 starts. The southpaw has allowed fewer than 5.5 hits in 10 of his last 13 starts. The Padres were just 25th in the majors in OPS (.679) in June. They've also struggled to hit southpaws all year, ranking 22nd in OPS (.657) against lefties. Sanchez is in the top 15th percentile in barrel rate and ground ball rate while the Friars have the second-lowest barrel rate and the sixth-highest ground ball rate. 

Jackson Merrill's batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 84%.. Jackson Merrill has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The youngster has cashed the Over in earned runs surrendered in back-to-back outings, allowing four to the Brewers last week and two to the Tigers the start prior. Neither appearance can be considered terrible, but for Skenes’ standards, it’s not up to par. His total is at just 1.5 tonight, and Skenes allowed two earned runs to the Cardinals back in May in six innings of work. Of course, he could still have a respectable start, but St. Louis does have one of the better lineups in baseball. They’re also hitting .217 vs Skenes in 92 at-bats. 

Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the world but he's been struggling with his control. Since the start of May, Skenes has walked at least two batters in seven of 11 starts. He's averaging 2.8 walks per nine innings during that span which includes a May 6 clash against the Cardinals where he issued four walks. 

The Marlins are one of the hottest teams going, but we will fade them on Tuesday for a few reasons. They are returning home after a western road trip, which is a spot I love to play against. More importantly, the Twins will have the pitching advantage with Joe Ryan going up against Edward Cabrera. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Jesus Sanchez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today's game... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team playing today.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the most humid conditions on the slate today at 85%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.

Wenceel Perez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the most humid conditions on the slate today at 85%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Wenceel Perez will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Trevor Williams) in today's matchup.. Wenceel Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Tampa Bay sits 2nd in average, 4th in slugging, and 3rd in wOBA at home during that span. They are tearing the cover off the ball. I expect that to continue against one of their former pitchers in Jeffrey Springs. He has not performed as well on the road, and the Rays have excelled against lefties of late. They rank 4th in OBP at home vs. lefties over the last couple of months. They should be able to provide real run support early for Shane Baz, who posted a 3.26 ERA in June – one of the best marks among today’s projected starters. Look for Baz and the Rays to get the early jump and lead through five innings.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler Soderstrom ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Tyler Soderstrom will have an advantage today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the best of the day for hitters.

As it relates to his home run ability, Will Benson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°.. Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Will Benson will have an edge in today's matchup.. Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The Mets were obliterated over the weekend, scoring just four runs while giving up 30.  A day off won't do them any good as they come up against Freddy Peralta on Tuesday. Peralta owns an 8-4 record with a 2.90 ERA, and he's not given up more than three runs in eight straight starts. With the Mets struggling at the plate, I like Freddy to deal and deliver a win for the Brew Crew. 

On the surface this seems like a game where you wouldn't expect many runs. After all, both starting pitchers have an ERA below 3.00 and the Brewers are 27th in run first inning rate. That said, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has an xERA of 3.74 while Mets starter Clay Holmes has an xERA of 4.12. The Brewers also hit significantly better on the road where they are fifth in the majors in OPS (.747). The Mets are seventh in the majors in OPS (.740) with that number ticking up to .761 against righties like Peralta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Didier Fuentes to throw 81 pitches today (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to better offense.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest humidity of the day at 78%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to better offense.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest humidity of the day at 78%.

The Guardians are reeling along a 7-15 stretch with an MLB low .265 wOBA and .123 ISO, and the club ranks 29th and 28th in the two metrics for the year against left-handed pitchers. As a result, I’m confident Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd (2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP) can navigate his way through the Cleveland lineup efficiently enough for the Chicago bats to put numbers on the board. The North Siders are also 25-15 at home and sport a third-ranked wOBA and fourth-ranked ISO against right-handed pitchers, after all.

As it relates to his home run skill, Lane Thomas ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Lane Thomas is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°.. Lane Thomas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game.

Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, deGrom has recaptured the form that allowed him to dominate hitters from 2018 to 2021. He's allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in seven of his last 13 starts, posting a 1.67 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP over that span. The Orioles have struggled to hit on the road where they are 26th in the majors in OPS (.661) and runs per game (3.74). DeGrom's previous start came against the O's at Camden Yards last week, when he allowed just one hit across seven innings of shutout ball.

In the league, Globe Life Field has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Gary Sanchez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last 7 days.. In comparison to his 90-mph average last year, Gary Sanchez's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.3 mph.. Gary Sanchez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 94.5-mph EV.. Gary Sanchez has averaged 24.5 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 80th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Anytime you can get the YRFI prop for a game at Coors Field at -140 or better, you have to seriously consider it. Not only is this game taking place at the most hitter friendly venue in baseball but there's an 8 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield. The Rockies are sending Chase Dollander to the hill. He has a 8.54 ERA with an OBA of .306 at home. After a slow start to the season at the dish, the Astros have turned things around, batting .265 since the start of May. They'll have rookie Colton Gordon on the mound and he has an OBA of .344 in the opening frame.

When estimating his home run ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Brenton Doyle will have the handedness advantage over Colton Gordon today.

When assessing his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.. Julio Rodriguez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.8-mph over the past week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in MLB.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.9-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. Heliot Ramos's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 41.9% to 48%.

When assessing his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. Willy Adames has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11.2% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 7 days.. Willy Adames has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 96.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. The 9th-shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Dodger Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the 2nd-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Dodger Stadium projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the 2nd-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.

This will be just the second big-league start for Misiorowski, and the Cubs have the eighth-lowest strikeout percentage against righties while also sporting a sixth-ranked wOBA and ISO. Make no mistake, Misiorowski has swing-and-miss stuff, but he also struggled with control and issued four free passes in his debut.

Tucker silenced any concerns about a lingering finger injury by going 3-for-4 at the dish with a run and a pair of doubles in the series opener against the Brewers on Tuesday. He’s up to a .383 wOBA, .225 ISO and .904 OPS against righties this season and faces Milwaukee rookie Jacob Misiorowski in just his second big-league start Wednesday night.