MLB Picks

The Chicago Cubs are in for a big day at the plate when they take on right-hander Mitch Keller. Throughout 90 at-bats, Chicago is hitting .322/.424/.600 against the right-hander. Take the home team to cover the run line.

Suzuki has three bombs in June, and they’ve all come in the last seven games. The 30-year-old is in the middle of a five-game hitting streak as well.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jo Adell ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-highest humidity of the day at 76%.. Jo Adell has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano struggles to strike batters out (20th percentile K%) — great news for Adell.. Jo Adell has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 14.6% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Mike Trout as baseball's 7th-best home run batter.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-highest humidity of the day at 76%.. Mike Trout hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The main catalyst of the Jays’ offensive burst lately has been Alejandro Kirk, who boasts a .446 batting average and an eight-game hitting streak during this stretch. I expect his bat to continue to roll today, and the value play is specifically betting on him to hit a single, considering 80% of his total hits have been for one bag. Kirk has also recorded two hits in nine career plate appearances against Sanchez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (85%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today.

Junior Valentine profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.6°, Miguel Vargas has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 28° angle over the last two weeks.. Miguel Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 33.6% to 40.3%.

When assessing his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 12th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Yandy Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill.. Yandy Diaz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph figure.

Hitting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Matt Thaiss will have the upper hand in today's game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Thaiss stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Matt Thaiss hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.. Matt Thaiss has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.36 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.9) may lead us to conclude that Matt Thaiss has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 5.6 actual HR/600.

When it comes to his home run talent, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Truist Park profiles as the #4 field in the game for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.

As it relates to his home run ability, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting base hits to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.

Brent Rooker projects as the 15th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brent Rooker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 87°.. In the last week, Brent Rooker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14% up to 29.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Tyler Soderstrom is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 87°.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Tyler Soderstrom will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Matt Wallner projects as the 8th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Wallner is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Matt Wallner will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Matt Wallner with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the game's 15th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 8th-best field in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Jose Quintana possesses a 3.86 expected ERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and walk rate. Andre Pallante has struggled this season, posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 13 starts.

Jackson Chourio has two bombs in his last four appearances. The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound and he’s struggled immensely, posting a 4.75 ERA and surrendering 11 long balls in only 13 starts.

Aaron Judge is batting .342 in June with five bombs and is 1-for-2 with a homer against Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins, who has allowed six home runs in 10 appearances.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the game.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Dobbins.

Zac Gallen has been one of the Arizona Diamondbacks best pitchers over the last few years, but that is far from the case in 2025. The 29-year-old is having a forgettable campaign, going 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA in 14 starts. He’s had serious issues with the long ball, allowing 14 home runs already. Gallen has held the San Diego Padres lineup to a .236 average across 123 at-bats, but he’s been a nightmare at Chase Field. Gallen has a 6.38 ERA at home in eight outings compared to a 3.79 ERA on the road. Although the Padres’ offense isn’t too consistent so far, this feels like a perfect opportunity to hit around Gallen.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in MLB.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 6° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Manzardo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Bats such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like George Kirby who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best batter in the game when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Julio Rodriguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Julio Rodriguez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.1%.

Landen Roupp has notable reverse splits, surrendering a .290/.340/.428 slash line to right-handed bats. One L.A. bat poised to capitalize is Andy Pages. The 24-year-old outfielder similarly has reverse splits, posting a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He’s also been much more effective at home (156 wRC+), making this a prime spot for there to be value in his props. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Willy Adames is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Dodger Stadium profiles as the #2 park in the league for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Willy Adames will have an edge in today's matchup.

Jose Berríos has surrendered just one earned run over his last three starts, and the Blue Jays right-hander has limited the Phillies to a .698 OPS over his career. Back the Jays to win in the City of Brotherly Love.

Paddack is fresh off a gem against the Orioles where he logged seven innings of shutout ball and he has pitched to a 2.06 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP over his last seven starts. The Guardians are 22nd in the majors in OPS (.686) and runs per game (3.96). They've been ice-cold at the dish lately, plating two runs or fewer in five of their last eight contests. Paddack has allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in six of his last seven and he'll benefit from the 18 mph wind blowing towards the infield tonight.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Target Field grades out as the #7 ballpark in baseball for LHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the last week, Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph lately.. Jose Ramirez's 21.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in the majors: 93rd percentile.