The New York Rangers are in the pole position for both the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and the Presidents' Trophy. New York has rolled off five consecutive wins, sports a tidy 26-9 record at Madison Square Garden, and the Rangers are a sizable home favorite in the NHL odds against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday.
Pittsburgh is in 12th place in the Eastern Conference and seven points out of the final Wild Card spot, so its in trouble of missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 2006-07 campaigns.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Penguins vs. Rangers on Monday, April 1.
Penguins vs Rangers odds
Penguins vs Rangers predictions
The New York Rangers received a huge boost over the weekend with top-four defensemen Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren returning to the lineup after missing time with respective lower-body injuries.
Additionally, No. 1 goalie Igor Shesterkin is trending in the right direction ahead of the playoffs. He’s sporting a 13-3-1 record, .933 SV% and 2.22 GAA out of the All-Star break, and he’s coming off a sterling 38-save win on the highway against the Avalanche.
I still have minor concerns about the 5-on-5 play for the Rangers, but ranking fourth in both power-play percentage (26.0%) and penalty-kill percentage (83.3%) has clearly helped mitigate a 20th-ranked 49.4 Corsi For percentage and 24th-ranked 48.2 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have stronger underlying statistics than their record would suggest, but a 30th-ranked 14.8 PP% stands out. Pittsburgh also hasn’t received quality goaltending from Tristan Jarry, and Alex Nedeljkovic has started each of the past four games for the Pens.
This is also a mismatch on the depth charts. Pittsburgh has an aging corps that lacks scoring talent and depth, and losing defenseman Ryan Graves (concussion) is another minor blow to a thin defense. He ranked fourth in ice time per game (18:14) and third while shorthanded (1:59).
New York still has a lot to play for over the final weeks, so I’m not anticipating an inferior Pittsburgh club sneaking up on the Rangers on home ice Monday.
My best bet: Rangers in regulation (-115 at bet365)
Penguins vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers in regulation
Under 0.5 goals in first 10 minutes
With Trouba and Lindgren back in the lineup, and Shesterkin playing at a Vezina caliber level for the Rangers, I don’t expect the Penguins to have a huge offensive push tonight. New York can play the matchups with the advantage of last change early, and neither the Rangers or Penguins score or allow a lot of first-period goals.
| First period goals | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins |
57 (26th most) | 64 (13th fewest) |
 New York Rangers |
61 (22nd most) | 57 (seventh fewest) |
Finally, I value the +325 bet365 odds because this same-game parlay is priced at +300 through FanDuel, and the difference in the numbers checks out as a positive expected value of 6%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penguins vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline as of Monday morning. Sports Interaction and bet365 haven’t moved off their opening -200 New York lines.
- I’m not expecting a major shift unless Rangers backup Jonathan Quick makes a second consecutive start.
- This total is a near consensus 6.0, with FanDuel hanging an outlier 6.5 total with the Under carrying the higher vig.
- The 6.0 totals have a higher tax attached to the Over, with Sports Interaction and bet365 both saddling the Over with a -115 vig as of Monday morning.
Penguins vs Rangers betting trend to know
New York has won 11 of its past 13 games at Madison Square Garden, and Pittsburgh has lost five straight on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Rangers.
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Penguins vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Madison Sqaure Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Monday, April 1, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN-PIT, MSG |
Penguins vs Rangers latest injuries
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