It's that weird day on the NHL schedule when anything can happen, and I'm targeting the three late games for today's NHL picks.
The Flyers' point props are being disrespected by the market; Kasperi Kapanen might offer the best +EV of any point prop this year against the Rangers, and the Ducks can't stop anyone, let alone the Senators.
Let's dive right into my favorite NHL predictions for Sunday, November 1.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 points |
52% |
 Kasperi Kapanen Over 0.5 points |
39% |
 Senators team total Over 3.5 |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 points
The Philadelphia Flyers have had three days off and hold the last-change advantage. Their top-line players still offer solid value in the point market, and Trevor Zegras belongs on the card at 52%, with a fair probability of 58%.
He leads Flyers forwards in ice time, seeing more consistent minutes than Matvei Michkov. Zegras is also on PP1 and has recorded points in six straight games, totaling 10 over that stretch. He's due for some positive regression, and his home splits offer another boost, with 10 points in eight games on home ice.
Meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth have surrendered 25 goals over their last six games.
- Matchup: Mammoth vs. Flyers
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- TV: SN1
Pick #2: Kasperi Kapanen Over 0.5 points
No player on the Edmonton Oilers' top PP unit should have a point probability below 50%.
Kasperi Kapanen played 19:27 last game, the third-most ice time among forwards behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He also finished with an assist and two shots on goal while logging 7:17 on the man advantage.
The New York Rangers have lost three straight and five of their last six, surrendering 18 goals over their last three games. This kind of value in the NHL comes around only once or twice a month. Kapanen should be priced at 55% to record a point tonight.
- Matchup: Oilers vs. Rangers
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- TV: SN
Pick #3: Ottawa Senators team total Over 3.5
This should be priced on the other side of 50%. The Anaheim Ducks have lost seven of their last eight games and allowed 4+ goals in all but one of those matchups.
Since returning home from a four-game East Coast trip, they've surrendered six goals to the Canucks and seven to the Sabres. This team is awful defensively and ranks fifth-worst in 5-on-5 xGoal%.
The Ottawa Senators have scored 5+ goals in four of their last six games and have already put up 10 goals across two games in California on this West Coast trip. I love Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens to record a point each at 45% or better, but this price is well below where it should be.
- Matchup: Senators vs. Ducks
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
- TV: TSN5
- Top picks: 30-33, +4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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