The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars hit the ice at American Airlines Center for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final tonight and it’s the Stars listed as the betting favorite.
Edmonton has superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, but my Oilers vs. Stars prediction is backing Stuart Skinner to surpass his save total instead. Find out why I chose this route in my NHL picks for Thursday, May 23.
Oilers vs Stars prediction
My best bet
Stuart Skinner Over 24.5 saves (-125 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
A two-game reset in backup duty proved beneficial for Edmonton Oilers' No. 1 goalie Stuart Skinner. He turned away 29 of 32 shots across consecutive wins over the Canucks to advance to the Western Conference Final.
The Dallas Stars have a deeper and more talented lineup jumping the boards than the Canucks, though, and Skinner is going to see a sizable uptick in shots in Round 3. Vancouver generated just 32 shots on 114 attempts across the final two games of the series, while Dallas averaged 29.2 shots per game in Round 2 against the Avalanche.
Additionally, the Kings averaged 29.0 shots per game and dominated the 5-on-5 possession with a 57.3 Corsi For percentage in Round 1.
Dallas will be able to drive possession against the Oiler's supporting cast, and the Stars are going to convert more than 28.1% of attempts into shots — unlike the Canucks did over the highlighted two final games of Round 2. For comparison, the Stars have turned 42.1% of their attempts into shots during the postseason.
I also believe we’re landing a lower total because Skinner has gone Under the number in six consecutive starts, including closing with a 23.5 saves total in each of his past three appearances.
Facing the Stars on the road is an entirely different matchup, though, and I don’t think there’s been enough of an adjustment in this betting market to account for the uptick in class the Oilers and Skinner are set to face.
Skinner has also been better on the highway during the postseason with a .909 SV% compared to an .851 mark on home ice, and his overall .881 is lagging well behind his .905 SV% during the regular season.
Oilers vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars moneyline
Under 6.5 goals
What the Stars lack in comparative star power to the Oilers, they make up with their advantage in goal and overall lineup depth. In particular, after the go-to Edmonton defense pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, the Oilers are vulnerable on the blue line.
Additionally, the Stars just showed off their ability to hold top scorers in check by slowing down Colorado superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar in Round 2.
While Jake Oettinger is going to be hard pressed to maintain a .941 SV% at 5-on-5, the Stars are also playing excellent team defense with the fewest goals against (1.5) and second-fewest expected goals against (2.13) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the playoffs. Finally, I expect Big D to play conservatively in Game 1 to prevent the opener from becoming a high-event, high-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Oilers vs Stars odds
Oilers vs Stars live odds
Oilers vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton +1.5 (-225) | Dallas -1.5 (+185)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +110 | Dallas -130
- Over/Under: Over 6.0 (-110) | Under 6.0 (-110)
Oilers vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been any meaningful movement to this moneyline, with Sports Interaction still on the opening Dallas -130 and Edmonton +110 prices.
- I don’t anticipate a significant adjustment leading into puck drop, either. This market has been open since early Tuesday morning.
- The 6.0 total is a near consensus, and Sports Interaction has both sides priced at -110.
- FanDuel is hanging an outlier 6.5 total with the Under priced at -138 as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Oilers vs Stars trend
Dallas averaged 29.2 shots per game in Round 2 against Colorado. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Stars.
Oilers vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, TNT |
Oilers vs Stars latest injuries
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