The Washington Capitals are home favorites over the Philadelphia Flyers ahead of their 7:30 p.m. ET puck drop at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, Oct. 28.
My favorite Flyers vs. Capitals prediction and NHL picks expect Washington to win this Metropolitan Division showdown convincingly tonight.
TOP PICK
Flyers vs Capitals prediction: Capitals -1.5
This is a back-to-back spot following consecutive losses for the offensively inept Philadelphia Flyers, so I recommend the Washington Capitals on the puck line at up to 48%.
Washington is 5-2 at home, and the Caps are also the better 5-on-5 team, with the Flyers ranking 29th in Corsi For percentage and 28th in expected goals percentage.
Philadelphia has scored a league-low 1.93 goals per game while also generating the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Finally, the Flyers offense isn’t positioned to flip the script tonight, with top-six wingers Travis Konecny (lower body) and Owen Tippett (upper body) injured.
COVERS INTEL: The Capitals rank seventh in expected goals differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and the Flyers are 31st.
Flyers vs Capitals combo
Philly's offensive struggles have led to the Under in nine of its 14 games this season.
Washington is also equipped to play better team defense and receive an uptick in goaltending. The Caps have allowed 2.98 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and posted an .892 team save percentage, after ranking fourth and fifth with respective 2.24 and .916 marks last season.
Washington winger Jordan Kyrou has recorded a point in four consecutive games and is skating on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit. Philadelphia has also surrendered nine goals over its past two games.
Flyers vs Capitals combo
- Capitals -1.5
- Under 6.5
- Jordan Kyrou 1+ points
Flyers vs Capitals player prop: Jordan Kyrou 1+ points
In addition to the highlighted case for Kyrou, his 3.44 points per 60 minutes pace the Caps, and skating with Dylan Strome and Alex Tuch at 5-on-5 is an ideal offensive gig. Strome is an excellent playmaker, and Tuch is a proven finisher.
This Kyrou prop is in play up to 57%.
Flyers vs Capitals goal scorer: Tom Wilson
It’s been six games since Caps winger Tom Wilson found the back of the net, so I recommend this prop at up to 33%. He’s scored 30 goals in consecutive seasons and jumps the boards in an offensive role.
Wilson has generated 1.67 individual expected goals on 15 shots during the skid, and his 9.1 shooting percentage this season is way below the 19.6% mark he posted over the previous two years.
- Top picks: 26-19, +12.15 units
- Combos: 2-16, -9.08 units
Flyers vs Capitals odds
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- Moneyline: Flyers 33% | Capitals 68%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (46%) | Under 6.5 (55%)
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (55%) | Capitals -1.5 (46%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Flyers vs Capitals trend
The Capitals have covered the puck line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Flyers vs Capitals
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, Sportsnet+ |
Flyers vs Capitals latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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