We’ve got 11 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an all-Canadian clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers.
NHL odds suggest Edmonton should win the game, and I think the power play could be the difference maker.
Find out how in my free NHL picks for the Oilers vs Maple Leafs on March 23.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs odds
Oilers vs Maple Leafs predictions
It’s time to renew the cross-country rivalry between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers.
The Oil have won seven of their last 10 games while scoring twice as many goals as allowed (38-19). Toronto is coming off an impressive 7-3 win over the Washington Capitals, but we did see one concerning trend remain in that game, and it may be a spot to try and exploit again.
Toronto not only allowed Ovi to score from his office in its last game, but the Buds have given up seven goals on the man advantage since the injury to Mitch Marner (and later Calle Jarkrok). Overall, the Leafs' PK has been poor, with just a 75% kill rate on the year, but that's dipped to 66% over the last eight games.
Enter the Oilers' third-ranked 26.4% power play that has rebounded nicely of late after a mid-season dip with a 41% success rate over their last four games. So who has the best value on the Oilers' top power-play unit tonight?
The answer is Leon Draisaitl who is paying +140 to record at least one point on the man advantage.
Draisaitl ranks seventh in the NHL this season with 34 points on the man advantage, sitting just one point shy of his teammate Connor McDavid. However, Draisaitl has been the main contributor to this recent surge, with five power play points over his last four games.
So with Leon being at +140 odds compared to McDavid’s +105 odds, I’ll take the value and roll with the big German to give us production on the man advantage.
Additionally, the Leafs have been horrid on home ice this season with the 28th ranked PK while allowing 3.3 goals per game.
My best bet: Leon Draisaitl Over 0.5 power-play points (+140 at SIA)
Oilers vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Oilers team total Over 2.5
Zach Hyman anytime goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll take the Over on the Oilers team total of 2.5 goals. The Leafs have given up 3+ goals in three straight as the PK has struggled and the goaltending has dipped. Edmonton has scored more than three goals in four of its last five and should be able to do it again tonight at Scotiabank Arena.
Plus, the Leafs allow 3.3 goals per game on home ice, ranking 27th leaguewide.
Next up, let’s take Zach Hyman to score one of those. Hyman has 48 goals this year and five in his last five games. A revenge goal against Toronto seems fitting on his route to 50.
For my final leg, I will also take an Auston Matthews anytime goal tonight. He’s the NHL’s goal leader and has 10 goals in his last 12 games against the Oilers, including a goal in the earlier meeting between these two teams back in January.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oilers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Leafs come into tonight as the home underdogs at +115 odds, with the Oilers getting -135 odds on the road. The Leafs have won seven of the last 10 games between these two clubs, but I think the absences of Mitch Marner, Calle Jarnkrok, and possible Tyler Bertuzzi (illness) will be too much to overcome for Toronto. So keep an eye on the injury report closer to puck drop.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, shaded toward the Over at -115, with the Under at -105 odds. Despite these teams being two of the top offenses in the league, the Over is just 3-5-2 over the last 10 games between these clubs. Perhaps buy a goal and grab the alternate Under at 7.5 goals. That play would’ve been 9-1 over that stretch
Oilers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 24-44 against the spread this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs.
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Oilers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, CBC |
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