The Los Angeles Kings finally snapped their eight-game losing streak last night in Carolina, but they have a quick turnaround on the road vs. the Dallas Stars tonight as a +115 road dog.
With Jake Oettinger set to return for Dallas and Los Angeles in a tough schedule spot, taking to the NHL player props market to fade the visitors may be the best move tonight.
Find out which L.A. skater I'm targeting as I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for the Kings vs. Stars on Tuesday, January 16.
Kings vs Stars odds
Kings vs Stars predictions
The Dallas Stars rank as the No. 1 team at even strength in expected goals against/60 and high-danger chances against/60, while also sitting third in Corsi against/60 and shots against/60 over the last 30 days. They're one of the best 5-on-5 defensive teams in hockey but their goals against does not reflect that.
Even with some of the best 5-on-5 metrics in hockey the club sits 32nd in SV% at 5-on-5, but the return of Jake Oettinger is going to help.
The No. 1 goalie missed 12 straight games, while Scott Wedgewood posted a .899 SV% over that stretch and currently ranks 57th of 64 goalies in goal saved above expected/60. Oettinger is a massive upgrade and can slow down a Los Angeles Kings team that played last night and is scoring the 20th most goals per game since the break at 2.70.
The Kings split up the ice time among their forward groups, and my eyes are set on fading Quinton Byfield, whose Under 0.5 points props is sitting at -109. It’s a good price relative to the market that is as low as -120. He has the lowest time on ice of the top-six forwards at 16:10 over the last 10 games and has points in just four of them.
Byfield does play on the top power-play unit, but L.A. splits that PP time up well. And although Dallas has an average penalty kill, it takes penalties at the second-lowest rate in the league.
I think the side and total have moved a little too much, and getting a guy who plays just 16 minutes a game at -109 to not record a point vs. an elite goalie in Oettinger is worth it.
My best bet: Quinton Byfield Under 0.5 points (-109 at BetRivers)
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Kings vs Stars same-game parlay
Quinton Byfield Under 0.5 points
Highest scoring period - third period
Dallas moneyline
30% boost available
I think -135 is a solid price for a buy back on the Stars, who have a big advantage in net and another with the schedule. L.A. has just one win over its last nine games and has also gone 0-4 SU in extra time.
Byfield is a young skater who is still not touching 17 minutes per game consistently, and the Stars don't take many penalties. Dallas is the highest-scoring third-period in hockey this year and has also gone 5-9-1 SU when trailing after two periods.
The best-case scenario here is Dallas pulls away in the third and caps it off with an empty-netter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Despite playing on the backend of a back-to-back, money has come in on the Kings. They opened as long as +130 and have shortened up to +115. That is a significant move for a team that finally snapped an eight-game losing streak and has regressed on the road after an 11-0 SU road start. They’re 3-4-3 since that great start and a lot of it is on the play of Cam Talbot, who is likely the starter tonight.
The All-Star is 0-4-3 SU with a .899 SV% over his last seven games and he was certainly playing above his career numbers at the beginning of the season, so regression was coming.
The total is where things get really interesting. This has bounced around from 6.0 to 6.5 and there are options for bettors with multiple books who can shop around.
I’d take this Over 6.0 at -125 or better, but that number could be gone by puck drop. Dallas is one of the best Over teams in hockey at 27-15 O/U and Talbot’s play has regressed with a 3.01 GAA and sub .900 SV% over his last 11 games. I can’t get on this Over at 6.5, however. Dallas is the No. 1 team in expected goals against/60 at even strength and L.A. is also a Top 10 club.
Kings vs Stars betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Kings have only hit the game total Over in 38 of their last 82 games (-10.35 Units / -11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Stars.
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Kings vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 16, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | HULU |
Kings vs Stars latest injuries
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