Week 3 brings several appealing survivor options, but the safest path may not be the most popular one.
Early-season results are sharpening expectations, but injuries, road spots, and divisional matchups can still create plenty of volatility.
My Week 3 NFL survivor picks and NFL picks spotlight the Giants as the top target against the Titans, while the 49ers offer another strong option.
I also explain why the Chiefs and Seahawks carry more strategic risk this week.
Giants
49ers
Chiefs
SeahawksPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 3 Survivor Pool first look
If you really wanted to get ballsy, you could use the Philadelphia Eagles when they visit the Chicago Bears for Monday Night Football. The Eagles might not be that popular because they are on the road and didn't cover the spread in their first two wins.
However, Chicago will be without star QB Caleb Williams for the next couple of weeks, and Philly will be out for revenge after losing at home to the Bears on Black Friday last season. I'm passing on the Eagles, though, because their offense is broken and Chicago's defense showed some life against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60 — including the NFL!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Teams to target in Week 3
Safe pick: Giants (vs Titans)
The Tennessee Titans are awful, and they will be in the running for the No. 1 pick of the 2027 NFL Draft. Plus, first-year Giants head coach John Harbaugh can motivate his team by reminding them they are facing their former head coach, Tennessee offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
Risky pick: 49ers (vs Cardinals)
As I wrote Monday morning, the San Francisco 49ers are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games against the Arizona Cardinals. Furthermore, San Francisco has the most impressive win in the league through the first two weeks of the season and looks like a Super Bowl contender.
Teams to avoid in Week 3
Chiefs (at Dolphins)
Don't get me wrong, the Kansas City Chiefs will probably wax the Miami Dolphins, but this will be one of the most popular survivor picks in Week 3, and you have to be contrarian if you want to win these pools. Plus, the Dolphins have a decent home-field advantage since Florida is a tough place to play at this time of the year with the heat and humidity.
Seahawks (at Commanders)
I know the Seattle Seahawks are the reigning champs, but it's tough using a team with a backup quarterback on the road in survivor. Seahawks second-string QB, Drew Lock, is 7-14 in his career in away games, and like the Chiefs, Seattle will be a popular pick this week.
Week 3 Survivor Pool strategy
From a strategic perspective, hosting the Titans might be the best spot to use the Giants, who don't have a lot of layups on their schedule. NYG hosts the Cardinals next week and the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, but both of those teams have more of a pulse than Tennessee.
The only reason the Niners are "risky" is because they are playing a division game. Meanwhile, there are a couple of other good spots to use San Francisco, including the Commanders at home in Week 6, who might not have QB Jayden Daniels, or the Las Vegas Raiders at home after a bye in Week 9.
Another contrarian survivor play worth considering is the Cincinnati Bengals over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincy finally looks like it has a competent defense, and QB Aaron Rodgers looks washed. It's risky because this is a division game, too, but these teams are headed in opposite directions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
