As the MLB regular season approaches its conclusion, it's time to break down what matters and what's noise on a loaded 15-game slate.
Here are all of my MLB moneyline predictions for Sept. 23, which are part of our MLB picks for tonight’s slate.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 23
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Nationalsvs  Tigers |
60% |
 Twinsvs  Giants |
42% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Orioles |
54% |
 Cardinalsvs  Pirates |
56% |
 Brewersvs  Phillies |
46% |
 Raysvs  Yankees |
45% |
 Guardiansvs  Red Sox |
55% |
 Redsvs  Braves |
70% |
 White Soxvs  Royals |
52% |
 Marlinsvs  Cubs |
62% |
 Metsvs  Rangers |
51% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Rockies |
60% |
 Angelsvs  Athletics |
55% |
 Padresvs  Dodgers |
66% |
 Astrosvs  Mariners |
47% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 23.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 23
Nationals vs Tigers: Detroit Tigers
Tigers win probability: 60%
The Washington Nationals’ bats are so ice-cold at the moment, posting an 82 wRC+ and .649 OPS over their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers have posted a 146 wRC+ and .854 OPS during that same stretch. It is the Tigers or nothing here.
No reason to fade a red-hot offense to back a frozen one.
Twins vs Giants: San Francisco Giants
Giants win probability: 42%
The Giants are trotting out nobodies as the season comes to an end, which makes me love them here. Twins southpaw Connor Prielipp has been solid, but Minnesota’s bats are ice-cold.
I want to back the Giants because of the hunger these no-names have as they try to make a name for themselves and stay in the bigs.
Back the hungry dog.
Blue Jays vs Orioles: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles win probability: 54%
Old man Max Scherzer is back to his struggling ways, sporting a 5.74 ERA, sub-12% strikeout rate and 1.28 WHIP over his last three starts. Orioles right-hander Chris Bassitt has been very solid for the Birds, and with neither offense popping off at the moment. Take the better arm.
Cardinals vs Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates win probability: 56%
With how brutal Matthew Liberatore and the Cardinals’ bats have been, it is the Pirates or nothing here.
Over their last six games, the Pirates own a 157 wRC+, .895 OPS and .229 ISO, while the Cardinals have posted a 72 wRC+, .598 OPS and .093 ISO.
Back the Pirates.
Brewers vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies win probability: 46%
Sure, Logan Henderson has been nails for Milwaukee, but Aaron Nola has completely turned things around over his last few starts. Over the veteran’s last five, he sports a 1.72 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just a 7% barrel rate and 31% hard-hit rate.
Neither lineup has been hot, so back the dog here.
Rays vs Yankees: Tampa Bay Rays
Rays win probability: 45%
The year is 2026, and we are not worried about fading Gerrit Cole. The Yankees starter has been brutal over his last five starts, posting a 5.34 ERA while allowing over 52% hard-hit and an 11.58% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
One of these Rays hitters will leave the yard tonight against Cole. Who? Well, if you need a couple of leans, I would say Victor Mena and Richie Palacios.
It’s the Rays here.
Guardians vs Red Sox: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 55%
A spot where the Red Sox should mash, as they draw Guardians southpaw Foster Griffin. The left-handed starter has been getting lit up over his last five outings, but his last three have been far worse. He owns a 9.50 ERA and 2.11 WHIP over that stretch, along with a 9.5% walk rate.
The Red Sox send out Sonny Gray to try to hold down a Guardians team that will not go down. If he can hold down this lineup while the Red Sox bats tee off on Griffin, this should be Boston’s game.
Reds vs Braves: Atlanta Braves
Braves win probability: 70%
Braves or nothing here.
The Reds’ bats are frozen, holding a sub-60 wRC+, .578 OPS and .115 ISO over their last 12 games. They send out Andrew Abbott, who owns a 9.61 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his last six starts.
Meanwhile, the Braves’ bats have come alive over the last few weeks, and they have Chris Sale holding it down this evening.
White Sox vs Royals: Chicago White Sox
White Sox win probability: 52%
It is always nerve-wracking to back a team that scored two touchdowns the day before while also allowing 11 runs. However, the White Sox cannot afford to take their foot off the gas, as they need to win to make the postseason, while the Royals are gearing up to work on their tan.
Luckily, the South Siders get to tee off on Seth Lugo, who not only sports a 5.40 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over his last three starts, but is also allowing an 11.54% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Despite Erick Fedde being an average pitcher at best, he has been lights-out over his last five outings, posting a 1.88 ERA. If the White Sox get that version of Fedde, this should be theirs.
Marlins vs Cubs: Chicago Cubs
Cubs win probability: 62%
A Cubs lineup that has posted a 136 wRC+, .840 OPS and .208 ISO over its last six games draws Ryan Gusto, who owns a 6.38 xERA and .193 WHIP. There is no reason to debate the underdog here.
Especially when the Marlins’ bats have been average at best over their last few games.
Mets vs Rangers: New York Mets
Mets win probability: 51%
The way Cody Bradford has been pitching, there is no way he will be able to hold down this Mets lineup. Over his last five starts, the southpaw owns a 5.01 ERA and 1.54 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate above 10%.
He draws a Mets team that has been seeing the ball pretty well as of late, sporting a 118 wRC+ and .757 OPS over its last 12 games. The Rangers’ bats have been underwhelming, making the Mets the lean here.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 60%
A lot of people will see Merrill Kelly’s name and sprint to fade him, but the right-hander has been very solid over his last five starts. During that span, he has maintained a 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 5% barrel rate.
Not to mention, the Arizona bats have been white-hot. We saw it on display last night, and I expect it to continue tonight.
Angels vs Athletics: Los Angeles Angels
Angels win probability: 55%
All the trust goes into Walbert Urena holding it down for at least five innings this evening, as the A’s own a sub-60 wRC+ over their last six games. Urena has been pure nails over his last five starts, posting a 2.56 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
The Angels’ bats have been a bit more lively than the A’s, so we’re leaning with the road favorite here.
Padres vs Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 66%
With Robbie Ray sporting a near-9.00 ERA over his last three starts and the Dodgers posting a 170 wRC+ over their last six games, it’s the Dodgers here. Not to mention, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the bump for Los Angeles this evening, owning a 2.14 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last five starts.
LA or nothing.
Astros vs Mariners: Houston Astros
Astros win probability: 47%
Give me the dog!
George Kirby should get lit up this evening by an Astros lineup led by Yordan Alvarez. The Mariners starter owns a 5.63 xERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last three outings. On top of that, Seattle’s offense has fallen off a cliff over its last six games, sitting below league average in most stats.
I like the Astros here.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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