Summer's blistering heat is mostly behind us, but there's still time to end dinger season on a positive note after cashing a 10x on Monday, as MLB player props are still ripe for another few days.
Juan Soto is getting the lefty-lefty value but might not see much left-handed pitching today. Meanwhile, the Orioles could send the Blue Jays packing with another rout of Max Scherzer.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, Sept. 23.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Juan Soto |
20% |
 Jeremiah Jackson |
10% |
 Corbin Carroll |
20% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 259x |
Home run prediction: Juan Soto
Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x.
The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances.
The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles.
It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, SNY
Home run prediction: Jeremiah Jackson
Jeremiah Jackson has the best expected value at this 10x price, with a 5% edge. Max Scherzer is a good target after the Orioles saw him just two starts ago and tagged him for seven hits and six runs over 15 outs.
Dylan Beavers hit a leadoff homer against Max, but his price is too short for my liking today. Colton Cowser at 8x is also a good option, as he has two dingers off the future Hall of Fame pitcher, but I want the big number on Jackson today.
Jackson got the day off Monday but should be seeing the majority of the reps at second down the stretch while hitting in the lower third. The majority of his homers have come against right-handers, and his home splits show a batter more comfortable at Camden. He hit four bombs over his last seven Triple-A games before getting the call-up in early September and still has two taters in nine games.
The power is there, and so is the price.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Sportsnet
- HR picks: 40-147, -9.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
