NFL AI Predictions for Week 3: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

Michael Penix Jr. gives Atlanta a fresh start, but there is plenty to fix. The Falcons have scored 16 points and have yet to reach the red zone through two games. Penix is set to make his first start of the season after returning from knee surgery, replacing Cooper Rush. Green Bay has its own offensive work to do after Jordan Love threw for just 145 yards in the overtime win over the Jets.

We have the Packers winning 27–20, enough to cover -5.5. That forecast allows for Atlanta to produce more with Penix while still asking the Falcons to make a substantial jump on a short week. The combined 47 points also put us on Over 44.5.

The Chargers’ protection has a difficult assignment in Buffalo. Justin Herbert absorbed nine quarterback hits against Las Vegas, and Greg Rousseau has recorded at least two sacks in each of Buffalo’s opening games. Josh Allen accounted for five touchdowns against Detroit, helping the Bills reach 77 points through two wins. Buffalo also gets extra preparation time after playing last Thursday.

Our prediction is Bills 28, Chargers 20, with Buffalo -7.5 the narrow ATS choice. The Bills have allowed 31 points in each game, so this is hardly a case for treating their defense as airtight. The Chargers’ consecutive 14-point performances nevertheless leave the model short of the 49.5 total. We’re taking Under.

Carolina’s downfield passing is giving defenses more to think about. Bryce Young has thrown three touchdowns in each game and completed five of seven deep attempts for 161 yards against Atlanta. Cleveland answered its own rough opener by limiting Tampa Bay to one touchdown, while Deshaun Watson completed 24 of 30 passes for 238 yards and two scores. Both teams arrive with something to build on.

Our 22–21 Carolina prediction separates the outright pick from the spread pick: we’re taking Browns +2.5 at home. Cleveland’s defensive response makes it reasonable to expect a closer game than Carolina’s 34–3 win last week. The forecast adds up to 43, leaving only a small lean to Over 42.5.

Detroit’s passing game is producing enough to keep the pressure on its own defense. Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns in Buffalo, with Amon-Ra St. Brown accounting for 142 yards and two scores. The problem is that Detroit has surrendered 71 points through two games. New York needs better balance after Breece Hall managed 29 yards on 16 carries against Green Bay.

The model favors Detroit 28–20, leading us to Lions -6.5. The Jets showed they could stay competitive with Green Bay, but their overtime possession ended after two sacks and a three-and-out. Detroit’s scoring ability supplies the separation here, while its defensive struggles help keep Over 47.5 in play against a projected total of 48.

Both teams are looking for their first win, and neither has been consistent enough to trust with much separation. Houston went from scoring 31 against Buffalo to six against Cincinnati, with only 60 rushing yards to support C.J. Stroud in Week 2. Indianapolis has allowed 74 points through two games, but Jonathan Taylor scored twice on the ground in a 33–30 overtime loss at Kansas City.

We’re taking Colts +2.5 with Indianapolis projected to win 24–23. Taylor gives the home offense a way to stay on schedule, while the Colts’ defensive results leave room for Houston to recover from last week’s touchdown-free showing. Our 47-point projection also clears the 43.5 total, making Over the accompanying pick.

Jacksonville needs its pass rush to travel back home with it. After recording five sacks in the opener, the Jaguars had none in Denver and let a 13–3 lead slip away. That matters against a New England offense still wasting opportunities: Drake Maye threw his fourth interception of the season last week, and the Patriots scored only 13 offensive points in their 20–3 win.

New England’s defense kept Pittsburgh to 3.5 yards per play, which helps explain why our forecast stays close at Jaguars 23, Patriots 20. Jacksonville -2.5 is the selection, with only half a point separating that line from the projected margin. We also have Under 44.5, with the teams combining for 43.

Kansas City has the offensive firepower, but the spread asks for a convincing road win. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis, and Kenneth Walker added 178 yards from scrimmage. Miami has scored just 13 points in each game. The Dolphins need more sustained offense from Malik Willis and De’Von Achane to keep their defense from being sent straight back onto the field.

The Chiefs remain our outright selection at 24–20, but that margin points to Dolphins +10.5. Miami can lose this game by more than the model expects and still cover. That is the case for taking the points after a poor start, while the projected 44 points support Under 46.5.

The Giants’ preparation revolves around an unsettled quarterback situation. This projection assumes Jameis Winston starts while Jaxson Dart’s knee is evaluated. Winston completed 11 of 27 passes for 111 yards and an interception in relief Monday night, and New York now returns from Los Angeles for a Sunday afternoon game. Tennessee showed some offensive progress against Philadelphia, rushing for 122 yards while Cam Ward threw for 183.

Our forecast is Giants 21, Titans 20, putting Tennessee +2.5 on the board. The Titans’ defense allowed Philadelphia to convert 11 of 18 third downs, so New York should have opportunities to sustain possessions. The 41-point projection also edges above 40.5 for a modest Over lean.

Pittsburgh needs an offensive response after managing three points in New England. Aaron Rodgers was sacked four times in that loss, and Cincinnati just held Houston to 60 rushing yards and five conversions on 17 third downs. The Bengals’ defense is a substantial obstacle. Pittsburgh did allow only 13 offensive points to the Patriots, however, with New England’s other touchdown coming from its defense.

The model still has the Steelers edging Cincinnati 24–23, making Pittsburgh +3.5 the pick. This calls for a meaningful rebound from the home offense rather than another performance like last week’s. It also produces a 47-point total, so our selection is Over 42.5 despite the low-scoring games both teams just played.

Seattle has kept its passing game moving with Drew Lock. He has four touchdown passes without a turnover through two games, including three against Arizona. This forecast assumes Lock starts again; Sam Darnold’s planned return to practice does not yet establish his game status. Washington has announced Marcus Mariota as its starter and needs to repair coverage communication after allowing four Dak Prescott touchdown passes.

We have Seattle winning 27–20, but the extra half-point makes Commanders +7.5 the ATS pick. The Seahawks’ defense presents a difficult assignment for Mariota, yet the model expects Washington to contribute enough offense for a 47-point game. That leaves Over 40.5 as our total selection.

San Francisco’s passing distribution makes this a difficult recovery spot for Arizona. Brock Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards against Miami, with seven 49ers catching a pass. Arizona, meanwhile, finished below 100 passing yards against Seattle, and Marvin Harrison Jr. did not record a catch. The Cardinals need longer possessions to avoid asking their defense to handle another afternoon of short turnarounds.

At 49ers 28, Cardinals 17, this is our largest projected margin of the week. San Francisco -8.5 is the ATS selection, with the home offense carrying most of the scoring expectation. Arizona’s difficulty generating passing production also helps explain our Under 47.5 pick against a projected total of 45.

Minnesota gets Kyler Murray back, but Tampa Bay can make him earn it through the air. Murray has cleared concussion protocol and been named the Week 3 starter. The Buccaneers are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry, a useful counter to a Vikings offense that has leaned on the run. Turnovers have driven the different starts: Minnesota is plus-four, while Tampa Bay is minus-four and has conceded 27 points off giveaways.

We’re taking Vikings -1.5 with Minnesota projected to win 24–20. Murray’s return gives the visitors another way to move the ball if Tampa Bay continues to hold up against the run. The 44-point forecast also produces an Over 42.5 pick, even after Minnesota’s 9–3 win in Chicago.

New Orleans has to keep Tyler Shough comfortable against an active Raiders front. Las Vegas has eight sacks through two games and has generated pressure without relying heavily on blitzes. Shough just completed 27 of 34 passes for 252 yards in Baltimore, where the Saints finished with a 16-play winning drive. His ability to keep finding the next manageable completion is central to this matchup.

Our forecast has the Saints winning 24–17, making New Orleans -3.5 the pick. Las Vegas brings strong early defensive form, but the model gives the home passing game enough sustained production to separate. The Raiders’ pressure also contributes to the case for Under 43.5, with our projected total at 41.

Dallas’ run defense faces a very different kind of test in Rio. The Cowboys allowed Washington to rush for 182 yards, including 69 from Jayden Daniels before halftime. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can challenge that same weakness. Dallas has a passing answer, though: Dak Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes with four touchdowns last week, and Baltimore just allowed New Orleans to score 15 unanswered fourth-quarter points.

The model projects Ravens 27, Cowboys 24 at this neutral site, with no Dallas home-field advantage included. We’re laying 2.5 with Baltimore, although the projected margin clears that line by only half a point. A 51-point game still lands below the market’s 52.5 total, giving us Under.

Denver’s defense should offer more resistance than the Giants did Monday night. Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns even with Puka Nacua inactive, and Davante Adams supplied 195 receiving yards. The Rams still face a short turnaround for a trip to Denver. The Broncos just limited Jacksonville to three second-half points, ending its final three possessions with an interception, a missed field goal, and a punt.

We have the Rams winning 23–21, which puts Broncos +2.5 on the spread side of the forecast. Denver’s defensive response is the reason to expect a closer, less efficient game than Los Angeles enjoyed against New York. The 44-point projection also leaves a small lean to Under 44.5.

Chicago has to make life easier for whoever starts at quarterback. This forecast assumes Case Keenum, with Caleb Williams week-to-week and Tyson Bagent reportedly in concussion protocol. The Bears repeatedly left themselves in difficult down-and-distance situations against Minnesota and came away scoreless from three second-half trips inside the Vikings’ 15. Philadelphia’s secondary has held each opposing starter below 200 passing yards.

The model nevertheless calls for Bears 24, Eagles 20, giving us Chicago +4.5 and Over 41.5. Chicago needs cleaner early downs and better finishing, while its defense must slow a Philadelphia offense that converted 11 of 18 third downs in Tennessee. The quarterback assumption is part of this forecast, not a confirmed starting announcement.