The Atlanta Falcons could have a light at the end of their quarterback tunnel, with Michael Penix Jr. possibly suiting up when the team visits the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football to begin Week 3.
There are a number of questions around Penix and his surgically repaired left knee, but looking at the past two weeks of QB play for Atlanta, things couldn’t be much worse.
I size up the opening spread and total for my Falcons vs. Packers prediction and give you my early leans and NFL picks for Sept. 24.
Falcons vs Packers predictions: Thursday Night Football
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Falcons vs Packers spread pick: Falcons +7.5
The opening spread from the NFL Week 3 odds climbed from Green Bay Packers -6.5 to -7 at many shops. Kalshi has half-point increments, which has me leaning to Atlanta Falcons +7.5 for an added cost.
I’m not sold on Michael Penix Jr. making that big of a difference or even playing at all, but this is a short week, and the Cheeseheads are a hurting unit.
Not only are they still without running back Josh Jacobs and EDGE Micah Parsons, but Week 2 claimed WR Jayden Reed and OLs Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks. Wide receiver Christian Watson also took a shot to the chest but returned to play. Nose tackle Javon Hargrave missed Week 2 with a concussion and doesn’t have much of a window to get clear for Thursday.
The Atlanta rushing attack is sound, amassing 157 yards behind the combo of Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson in Week 2’s blowout loss. The ground game can control possession and keep the Falcons within striking distance while also taking pressure off Penix (or whoever).
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Early Falcons vs Packers total pick: Under 44.5
Five turnovers are going to breed ugly results. That’s what we got from Atlanta in Week 2.
The Falcons did OK on defense considering the situation. They checked Carolina to 3-for-6 in the red zone and were solid on third downs.
Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been pretty. QB Jordan Love is completing only 52% of his pass attempts and is now playing behind a paper-thin offensive line. He faces an Atlanta stop unit playing very aggressively, with blitz-heavy schemes from new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
The Packers will need to keep dropbacks quick and lean into the run more, in an effort to cool the pressure on Love. He was sacked three times in the overtime squeaker against the New York Jets on Sunday.
Falcons vs Packers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Falcons vs Packers spread: Packers -7.5
- Falcons vs Packers moneyline: Falcons 25%, Packers 75%
- Falcons vs Packers Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Falcons vs Packers
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Green Bay, Wis.
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- TV: Prime
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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