My Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23, back the Dodgers as 66% favorites.
After a 7-0 Dodgers win on Tuesday, Los Angeles looks to Yoshinobu Yamamoto to keep holding it down this evening at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch flies at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers today: Dodgers
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It's very tough to see a Yoshinobu Yamamoto day and want to back the San Diego Padres in this spot, especially when the visitors are sending out left-hander Robbie Ray, who owns an 8.78 ERA, 5.43 xERA, and 1.65 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats are gearing up for October, as they have a 170 wRC+, .411 wOBA, and .943 OPS over their last six games.
With Yamamoto always lights-out when he takes the mound, it is hard to fade the Monstars of L.A.
COVERS INTEL: Andy Pages is batting .310 with a .655 SLG and .988 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
I fully expect the run production to come from the Dodgers offense. With how bad Ray has been in his last few starts and how hot the Dodgers are getting as October approaches, this is a bad spot for the veteran southpaw.
The Padres do own a 174 wRC+, .967 OPS, and .259 ISO over their last six games, but when Yamamoto's on the mound, that doesn’t matter. Hopefully, they can still secure some runs, but I’m fully expecting the Dodgers to carry the load.
Padres vs Dodgers home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez
The highest-rated hitter in this matchup is Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez, who owns an elite rating on both of Batters-Box’s datasets. The veteran covers nearly 90% of Robbie Ray’s pitch mix. He also leaves the yard more than 20% of the time when he has posted an elite rating at home over the last three seasons.
Hernandez has been lighting up left-handed pitchers this season. In his last 60 at-bats against southpaws, he owns a .333 BA, .647 SLG and 1.080 OPS, while generating a 55.3% hard-hit rate and 18.4% barrel rate.
The last 60 right-handed hitters Ray has faced are producing a nearly 70% elevation rate, a 10.5% barrel rate, and a 42% hard-hit rate. Those right-handed hitters also own a .388 xBA, .782 xSLG, and .420 xwOBA.
My mouth is watering, too.
- 2026 Season: 527-1044, +3.2 units
- Home Run picks: 134-454, +31.1 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Upper 70s with the wind blowing out to dead center. Should be perfect weather for a baseball game in L.A.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres 34% | Dodgers 66%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (52%) | Dodgers -1.5 (48%
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (56%) | Under 8.5 (44%)
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have hit the first five innings (F5) team total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, SNLA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.60 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Blake Snell (4-1, 1.86 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
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