There's a massive Wednesday on deck! We have so many MLB player props to get through this evening.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sept. 23, including why Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready to pop off against Ryan Gusto.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Spencer Jones |
1+ Hit | -133 |
 Victor Mesa Jr. |
1+ Hit | -133 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -119 |
Spencer Jones to Record 1+ Hit (-133)
Pay the juice. Seriously, pay it.
New York Yankees slugger Spencer Jones finds himself with the No. 1 rating on both of Batters-Box’s datasets while covering nearly 96% of Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Ian Seymour’s pitch mix.
The big fella has been lights out against left-handed pitchers this season. Over his last 30 at-bats against a lefty, Jones owns a .519 BA, .778 SLG and 1.345 OPS while barreling the ball at an 11% clip.
Seymour has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters lately. Over his last 30 batters faced, they have generated a 33% line-drive rate while owning a .332 xBA, .543 xSLG and .233 ISO.
I snagged this prop at -115, and I would pay it down to -150. Getting this below -140 is a steal, win or lose. We are asking a guy to do the bare minimum against lefties, which he has mashed all season.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Amazon, RAYS
Victor Mesa Jr. to Record 1+ Hit (-133)
Another amazing price for a guy who just needs to do the bare minimum. The Rays outfielder is in a great spot against Yankees starter Gerrit Cole. Victor Mesa Jr. finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he is crushing over 85% of Cole’s pitch mix.
Mesa has been on fire as of late against right-handed pitchers, batting .407 with a .852 SLG and 1.319 OPS in his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He also is generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate during that stretch.
Cole has been struggling a ton over his last few starts, and left-handed hitters have been his kryptonite. The last 60 he has faced own a .408 xBA, .630 xSLG and .353 xwOBA. Cole is allowing them to generate a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate and nearly 70% elevation rate during that span.
The Rays may have popped champagne last night, but we just need a hit. Take this down to -145.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Amazon, RAYS
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-119)
What. A. Price.
What a price tag for the future NL MVP to surpass his 1.5 HRR prop, which he has gone over 56.25% of the time when owning an elite rating on Batters-Box this season. Not to mention, he has recorded a double 27% of the time and left the yard 31.2% of the time as well.
This evening on the North Side, Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong draws Miami Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who has been getting smacked around like a rag doll lately. Left-handed hitters have been on top of every offering in his last three games, allowing a near-52% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate while elevating the baseball almost 80% of the time. Over that stretch, those lefties own a .342 xBA and .611 xSLG.
Over his last 10 games, Crow-Armstrong has maintained a .667 SLG, .640 xSLG and .378 ISO while making 47% hard contact and posting a 17.6% barrel rate.
Take this down to -125.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, MARQ
- Prop picks: 527-1044, +3.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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