Matt Boldy is one of the sport's best finishers but hasn't scored in four straight games despite piling up 49 shot attempts.
A breakout is just around the corner, and my NHL predictions are banking on it starting against a putrid Vancouver Canucks defense and a struggling netminder.
Let's take a closer look at my NHL picks for Sunday, Oct. 25.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Sam Bennett Over 0.5 points |
57% |
 Matt Boldy anytime goal |
43% |
 Cale Makar Over 2.5 shots |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Sam Bennett Over 0.5 points
Play to 59%.
Florida’s new top line, Brady Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk, is as good as it gets.
They are generating 4.6 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the second-best rate among 61 trios who’ve spent 50+ minutes together.
Nobody has an answer for this line. The Chicago Blackhawks rank Bottom-5 in both expected goals allowed and xG share, making them an unlikely candidate to come up with one.
Bennett has averaged 3.0 shots on goal per game on this line, far beyond the 1.8 he produced before Brady joined it. That should lead to improved results.
The Panthers are 64% favorites this afternoon. Bennett produced a point in 70% of wins vs. Bottom-12 defensive teams a year ago.
- Matchup: Florida Panthers vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center, IL
- TV: SN, ESPN+
Pick #2: Matt Boldy anytime goal
Matt Boldy is a target to find the net up to 50%.
He is producing truly remarkable volume right now, averaging 5.8 shots on 10.6 attempts over his last five games.
His output has increased with Kirill Kaprizov on his opposite wing rather than Blake Coleman. Boldy is averaging more than five additional shot attempts, and two more shots on target, per 60 minutes with Kaprizov on his line at evens.
The Vancouver Canucks are dead last in shot suppression and expected goals allowed at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill.
Factor in the poor goaltending — they sit 31st with an .861 team SV% — and this is a dream spot for Boldy to score.
- Matchup: Minnesota Wild vs. Vancouver Canucks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
- TV: SN, ESPN+
Pick #3: Cale Makar Over 2.5 shots
Play to 54%.
Cale Makar started the year with six or fewer shot attempts in four straight games. Since then, he's attempted at least seven in five of his last six games, helping him clear 2.5 shots on target four times.
He’s in a good spot to continue letting it fly. The Nashville Predators take few penalties and play most of each game at 5-on-5. That’s just fine for Makar, who trails only Nathan MacKinnon in shots on goal among Colorado Avalanche players.
Makar is somewhat a rover, but a lot of his shots come from the right point. That’s a plus in this matchup, as the Predators rank 31st in shots allowed to that shooting zone.
- Matchup: Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Bridgestone Arena, Tenn.
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
- Top picks: 19-20, -2.96 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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