Our second Sunday Night Football game of the NFL season gives us an exciting matchup: the Indianapolis Colts face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. I’ve compiled my three favorite longshots, which you can bet as a huge combo.
So here we go: my three Sunday Night Football NFL long-shot picks that you can put together as a combo for a gigantic return.
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Sunday Night Football long-shot picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Downs to score 1+ touchdown |
21% |
 Kenneth Walker 100+ rushing yards |
35% |
| Rashee Rice to score 2+ touchdowns |
8% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Josh Downs to score 1+ touchdown
The Kansas City Chiefs allowed just 115 passing yards to the Broncos last week, but given Bo Nix’s mistake-riddled performance, the struggles of the offensive line, and Davis Webb’s playcalling, it’s hard to draw any conclusions about what that defense is yet.
With that in mind, Josh Downs feels like the best value long-shot anytime touchdown pick.
Downs didn’t have a huge performance against the Ravens, catching just half of his four targets but when it comes to future opportunities there’s reason to be bullish.
He played in two-WR sets, ran routes on 88% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks, and with a game script that has the Chiefs as favorites, we should see plenty of chances for him to use his speed and stretch this defense.
Pick #2: Kenneth Walker 100+ rushing yards
In Week 1, Kenneth Walker and the Chiefs offense rushed for 173 and 220 yards, respectively, while Derrick Henry averaged 6.0 yards per carry and put up 144 yards on the ground against the Colts.
However, it’s not as simple as using last week’s results to make this prediction; it’s about explaining why Walker’s performance is repeatable and why he can break 100 yards again.
First, we saw a Chiefs team happy to lean on the ground game and use Patrick Mahomes’ arm sparingly, with the quarterback throwing just 27 times. The team had 38 rushing attempts in total, with Walker having 23 of those.
What really stands out is both the blocking lanes created by the Chiefs offensive line and Walker’s ability to force missed tackles when he broke out, with 16 across the entire game, by far the most in Week One.
He may not put up those numbers every week, but his agility in space, this offensive line, and Mahomes keeping the defense honest should give him plenty of 100+ rushing-yard games.
Pick #3: Rashee Rice to score 2+ touchdowns
He may only have had two targets all game, but Rashee Rice caught both and scored once. It’s notable that Mahomes threw three passes in the red zone, and they were split equally between Rice, Walker, and Xavier Worthy, with Travis Kelce not involved.
Last season, Rice led the Chiefs with 18 red zone targets, six more than the next-best, Kelce, despite missing nine games.
Last year he averaged more than two red zone targets per game, and is set to increase his target share this week. Xavier Worthy tied for most targets, six, with Walker, yet was hugely inefficient, catching just three.
He was so bad that Rice is surely set to eat into some of those targets. Last year Rice scored 2+ touchdowns in 25% of his games played, and he’s worth a long-shot bet this week too.
Week 2 SNF long-shot combo
Josh Downs 1+ touchdown
Kenneth Walker 100+ rushing yards
Rashee Rice 2+ touchdowns
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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