It's an NFL Sunday, and that means the MLB player prop markets are softer than usual, and the dinger board is ready for the taking as I eye my home run props.
It's all about the price today (as it should be), and Shea Langeliers and JP Crawford are two of the top-rated and +EV dinger options available.
These are my favorite picks for Sunday, Sept. 20.
MLB home run props for today
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Shea Langleiers
JP Crawford
Home run prediction: Shea Langeliers (14%)
It's a tough matchup, but this is too long for Shea Langeliers, with a fair probability of 17%.
You're not going to find Langeliers longer than this, as his home run prices in the first two games of the series were 5.25x and 4.75x. Today's 7.3x is a huge difference and too much of an adjustment, even against Gavin Williams.
Langeliers hasn't gone deep in his six games since returning to the lineup. But he's hitting .300, and Gavin Williams has allowed 25 dingers this year with the 25th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CleGuardians.TV, NBC Sports California
Home run prediction: JP Crawford (11%)
How about a 9x home run from a hitter who has logged three dingers in his last seven games, could get five plate appearances, and faces one of the most generous home-run pitchers in baseball at Coors?
JP Crawford's fair price is closer to 5.5x. It's a dream matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has allowed multiple home runs in seven of his last 12 starts dating back to late June. Sugano is a target every five days and has given up more home runs over the last two seasons than every pitcher in baseball not named Shota Imanaga.
This is a giant price for anyone at Coors Field, let alone a hot, top-of-the-order hitter in a plus-plus matchup.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 39-143, -14.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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